Analysis

Analysis October 28, 2025 08:42 MIN July-September 2025 A New Approach to Reforming the Government of Yemen By Hussam Radman In 2022, Yemen's internationally recognized government replaced then-President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi with a Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which was tasked with serving as the country’s new executive political and legal authority. While the transition was framed as a response to growing domestic demand for change, it was primarily driven by external influence, most notably from Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom’s urgency to extricate itself from its costly military entanglement in Yemen led to efforts to secure a negotiated settlement with the Houthis, culminating in what became known as the roadmap for peace. The roadmap has since stalled amid regional transformations following the events of October 7. The turmoil that ensued has underscored an important reality: despite its weakness and marginalization,… Continue reading Analysis October 28, 2025 06:59 MIN July-September 2025 No End in Sight: An Uncertain Future for the Houthi-Israeli Conflict By Salah Ali Salah As a fragile ceasefire takes hold in Gaza, questions are being raised about how it might influence the Houthis’ confrontation with Israel. For nearly two years, these unlikely adversaries have been locked in an unprecedented war of attrition—a conflict that began with symbolic and propagandistic strikes by the Houthis but has since escalated into sustained engagement. The Houthis have thrust themselves into the Gaza war with growing force, escalating from alleged acts of solidarity with Palestinians to increasingly bold attacks. In response, Israel has expanded its retaliation, from attacks on Yemen’s energy infrastructure, ports, and cement factories to the targeted assassination of Houthi leaders and more sensitive administrative, military, and security targets, resulting in civilian deaths. Developments in the region… Continue reading Analysis July 22, 2025 10:14 MIN April-June 2025 The Bride of the Red Sea: A Century of Transformation in Hudaydah By Tawfeek Al-Ganad Hudaydah has long served as a battlefield for those seeking control over Yemen. Since the 15th century, various empires, including the Portuguese, the Mamluks, the Ottomans, and the British, have made both successful and unsuccessful attempts to dominate the region. A century after the Mutawakkalite Kingdom of Yemen, commonly referred to as the Imamate, first extended its authority over the region, Hudaydah continues to hold immense strategic importance. Since the outbreak of regional conflict after October 7, 2023, Hudaydah has been targeted by airstrikes from the United States, Britain, and Israel, which have destroyed key pillars of its economic power, particularly the ports of Hudaydah, Ras Issa, and Al-Salif. Nevertheless, Hudaydah remains the military and economic center of Yemen’s West… Continue reading Analysis July 22, 2025 09:33 MIN April-June 2025 The Narrative Battle of the Iran-Israel War By Salah Ali Salah The 12-day military confrontation between Israel, the US, and Iran has come to a halt. This was no ordinary exchange of fire; all parties employed their most advanced military capabilities, and both Iran and Israel suffered significant casualties, in addition to material and, perhaps more importantly, psychological losses. After days of a relentless Israeli air campaign, the conflict’s turning point came with the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities using B-2 strategic bombers. In turn, Tehran responded by striking the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar – an attack that caused no actual damage but was instead a symbolic gesture, aimed at saving face rather than intended to inflict harm. US President Donald Trump announced the cessation of hostilities shortly thereafter.… Continue reading Analysis July 21, 2025 04:04 MIN April-June 2025 What Does a Weakened Iran Mean for the Houthis? By Thomas Juneau The balance of power in the Middle East has been transformed in the past year and a half. For years, there was a widespread assumption that there existed a loose balance of terror between Israel and Iran. Analysts understood that Israel’s conventional military power, backed by the United States, was vastly superior to Iran’s depleted military. But the common view was that Iran’s unconventional assets – its missile and drone programs and its support for violent non-state armed groups – posed enough of a threat to deter Israel from attacking. This perception led to the gradual development of unofficial rules of the game between the two sides, whereby each repeatedly attacked the other, but indirectly, and with sufficient restraint to… Continue reading Analysis April 21, 2025 07:36 MIN January-March 2025 An Unsteady Path Forward for Yemen’s National Political Bloc By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, and Tawfeek Al-Ganad The formation of the National Political Bloc last November has raised pressing questions about the future of political parties and coalition-building in Yemen. The country has seen several such initiatives over the past two decades, most notably the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), launched in 2003, which effectively mobilized partisan opposition against President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime in the years leading up to the 2011 uprising. However, its influence gradually eroded during the transitional period, eventually disappearing without an official dissolution. Since the Houthis’ takeover of Sana’a in September 2014, the role of Yemeni political parties has sharply declined, resulting in diminished public engagement. Upon entering the capital, the Houthis immediately targeted party leaders. After they issued their “constitutional declaration” on… Continue reading Analysis April 21, 2025 08:27 MIN January-March 2025 Gulf Allies Could Prove Key in US Plans in Yemen By Elham A. Omar On March 15, US President Donald Trump ordered a series of “decisive and powerful” airstrikes targeting Yemen’s Houthis in response to the group’s attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea. The operation marks the most significant US military engagement in the Middle East since Trump retook office, with the stated aims of degrading Houthi capabilities and sending a clear message to their Iranian allies. Trump’s escalation has heightened tensions with Iran, risking a broader confrontation. Meanwhile, regional reactions to the strikes have been shaped by states’ interests, alliances, and the ripple effects of the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The UAE, which backs powerful military groups in southern Yemen, has a history of supporting a hawkish approach to… Continue reading Analysis April 21, 2025 05:45 MIN January-March 2025 Two Decades of Transformation: The Houthis’ Emergence from the Shadows By Salah Ali Salah When they first emerged from the “Believing Youth” movement in 2004, no one could have imagined the Houthis—a small group of local rebels fighting with traditional weapons— would evolve into a military and political force with influence extending across the regional and international landscape. But the Houthis’ development was not merely a matter of geographic expansion or enhanced military capabilities; it involved deeper transformations in its organizational structure, administrative systems, and political strategies. The growing disruption and threat posed by the Houthis recently prompted the administration of US President Trump to announce its first foreign military operation, and airstrikes against the group expanded dramatically in mid-March 2025. March is the same month in which a Saudi-led coalition launched Operation Decisive… Continue reading Analysis April 21, 2025 06:20 MIN January-March 2025 New Technologies in Houthi Drones By Khaled Mukhtar On February 13, 2025, the National Resistance forces, led by Presidential Leadership Council member Tareq Saleh and based on Yemen’s Red Sea coast, announced the seizure of a smuggled shipment of military equipment intercepted en route to the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). The shipment included devices and equipment that suggest the Houthis are working to enhance their drone capabilities by integrating new and previously unused technologies—or at least technologies not widely deployed. Specifically, these include jet engine technology and first-person view (FPV) systems, both of which have the potential to significantly amplify the scale of threat anticipated in any future local or regional escalation. Among the items seized, the National Resistance forces showcased several jet engines, which, judging by their… Continue reading Analysis April 21, 2025 08:55 MIN January-March 2025 Breaking the Glass Ceiling: Yemeni Women in Diplomacy By Rim Mugahed, Hana’a Abdurabu, and Essa Al-Qadasy “Our main challenge as women in Yemen is simply the fact that we are women,” - Sahar Ghanem, Yemeni Ambassador to the Netherlands. “How can women have a strong presence [in diplomacy] when we aren’t in decision-making positions at all?” - Female Yemeni diplomat. The underrepresentation of women in Yemen’s political and public sphere existed before the war and has only worsened due to the ongoing conflict over the past decade. The Yemeni government formed as part of the Riyadh Agreement in 2020 did not include female ministers, marking the first time women had been entirely excluded from a cabinet in nearly two decades. In a context of escalating tension and polarization, this marginalization extends to all other structures, where… Continue reading Analysis February 4, 2025 05:56 MIN October-December 2024 Navigating Yemen’s Ongoing Quest for Peace: Key Challenges and Prospects for 2025 By Alexandra Nikopoulou A year of war across the Middle East has profoundly reshaped the region, shifting power dynamics and redrawing the lines of local conflicts. For Yemen, the Gaza war and its repercussions have served as an intensifier to the conflict, driving peace to a stalemate and exacerbating local divisions. The end of 2024 saw an increase in fighting on several fronts, a further escalation in Houthi-Israeli tensions, and renewed hope for a Houthi retreat within the anti-Houthi camp. International efforts toward a peace settlement continued, with the process following a familiar yet flawed approach in search of a still-elusive breakthrough. In the past three months, little has changed regarding the international community’s approach to achieving peace in Yemen. The Presidential Leadership… Continue reading Analysis February 4, 2025 05:07 MIN October-December 2024 Will Al-Qaeda Change Tack After the Jihadist Victory in Syria? By Abdelrazzaq al-Jamal The sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and rise to power of Islamists marks a pivotal turning point in the regional landscape. The new government is headed by the former rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, previously known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Before forming HTS, Al-Sharaa was a leading Al-Qaeda commander in Syria who had also fought in Iraq alongside radical figures such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. With his transformation into Syria’s head of state, he represents a new model of post-Al-Qaeda Islamism and raises fundamental questions about the group’s future direction. HTS’ unexpected success in Syria, after spending years holed up in the northern province of Idlib,… Continue reading