Analysis

Analysis February 4, 2025 10:46 MIN October-December 2024 How Yemeni Religious Groups Recruit Fighters By Hussam Radman This article was originally published by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI). Conflict in Yemen over the past two decades, including the war since 2015, has been dominated by parties with ideologies rooted in religion. Religious ideologies play a key role in the policies adopted by these movements toward the recruitment of fighters into their ranks. There are four main groups in question: the Sunni Islamist Islah party, the Zaidi Shia Houthi movement, the Salafi jihadists of Al-Qaeda, and government-allied Salafis fighting in paramilitary groups backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These four currents have flourished in Yemen for decades, initially influenced by the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the Afghanistan jihad in the Eighties. Yemen… Continue reading Analysis February 4, 2025 09:13 MIN October-December 2024 A Year in Patriarchy: Key Setbacks in Yemeni Women’s Rights in 2024 By Bilqees Al-Lahbi, Rim Mugahed, and Lara Uhlenhaut Away from the Red Sea crisis that dominated the headlines of 2024, the space for female political and social actors in Yemen has continued to shrink, largely unchecked. Today, the distinction between the repression in areas controlled by the Houthis and those under the internationally recognized government is becoming increasingly blurred. In Houthi-controlled areas, a campaign of terrifying arrests of civil society actors that started last June and continues to date has seen various female activists and peace workers targeted, some of whom are languishing in prisons incommunicado under dire conditions. In areas under government control, polarization and conflict among the various political factions are primarily to blame for undermining women’s rights. Political partisanship and a policy of divide and… Continue reading Analysis February 4, 2025 05:36 MIN October-December 2024 Israel’s Calculations in Responding to the Houthis By Salah Ali Salah Tit-for-tat operations have seen a surge in missile and drone attacks launched by the Houthis toward Israel as part of what the group calls the fifth phase of escalation in support of Gaza. The conflict has cast a wide net over both parties and continues to evolve gradually. Israel has carried out retaliatory airstrikes inside Yemen in response to Houthi attacks. Yet the efficacy of their airstrikes thus far has failed to have any tangible impact, as the Houthis have gained considerable experience in withstanding aerial targeting in recent years. The nature of Israeli targets in Yemen also differs significantly from those struck by the United States and the United Kingdom. While US and UK strikes have predominantly focused on… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 07:07 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 The Houthis’ Rise Amid the Gaza War and Red Sea Crisis: From Local Actor to Regional Force By Alexandra Nikopoulou Following the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) rapidly extended their support to the Palestinians, directly targeting Israel, along with Israeli and Western vessels in the Red Sea. This unprecedented crisis has bolstered the group’s regional status and resulted in the escalation of regional tensions and the emergence of a novel threat to global maritime security. Concurrently, it has provided the Houthis with added leverage at the negotiation table. The Houthis have essentially transitioned from being recognized solely as a local Yemeni actor to becoming a powerful regional player within the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Drawing on key insights from Sana’a Center experts, this analysis follows a three-level approach to examine the impact of the Houthis’ attacks… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 05:46 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 UAE-Backed Forces Regroup in Yemen By Eleonora Ardemagni Since 2022, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has been at the forefront of efforts to regroup UAE-backed forces in Yemen, including those that operate under its own banner. These efforts have accelerated in recent months, involving the appointment of new officials and increased cooperation with other UAE-backed actors in Yemen. There are three reasons for this campaign: to build a larger and more cohesive front to cope with possible future scenarios, from the resumption of large-scale fighting to a diplomatic breakthrough in the moribund peace process; to counterbalance the influence of the Saudi-backed Nation’s Shield forces; and to deal with persistent political-military tensions in Hadramawt, where the STC is attempting to increase its influence. Overall, the reorganization of these armed… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 07:23 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Egypt Maneuvers in the Horn of Africa By Maher Abu al-Majd Since October 2023, the Middle East has witnessed a series of geopolitical developments, which Cairo has perceived as a direct threat to its national security. These include: 1) the Israeli war on Gaza; 2) Houthi escalation in the Red Sea and a subsequent decline in Suez Canal revenue; 3) Ethiopia's quest for a seaport and plans to establish a naval base on the coast of Somaliland; and 4) the crisis in Libya and the potential for renewed conflict. This rapid succession of events has shattered Egypt's longstanding pillars of foreign policy, which for four decades were built on the principles of good neighborliness, non-intervention, and investing in mediation and diplomacy. In response, Cairo has undertaken a series of proactive measures… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 03:44 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 A Snapshot of Yemeni Public Sentiment on Red Sea Developments By Lara Uhlenhaut, Yazeed Al-Jeddawy, and Mona Ghaleb A rapid survey conducted by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies indicates that Yemeni support for Houthi operations in the Red Sea does not necessarily equate with a favorable view of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). Following the first US-UK retaliatory military strikes carried out in January this year, more than 400 Yemeni respondents across 11 governorates were asked their views on Houthi operations in the Red Sea, their perceived impact on the war in Gaza, and the effects of this escalation on peace prospects in the country. As the Houthis gain more regional and global clout, the survey provides an insightful glimpse into how their actions are perceived among Yemenis and the impact of these on their hopes for… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 07:06 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Houthi Authorities Undermine Judicial Independence with Major Reforms By Mohammed Al-Shuwaiter In a new assault on the judiciary, the Houthi-controlled House of Representatives approved several amendments to the 1991 law on judicial power in mid-September 2024. This is not the first infringement on judicial independence since the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) staged a coup, taking control of Sana’a in 2014. They are systematically tightening their grip over the judiciary along racial and sectarian lines. The Houthis deliberately changed the legal structure of the judiciary and introduced what they called a “justice system” – a special committee tasked with overseeing the functions of the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC). The committee is headed by Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council. They also created unofficial posts of “supervisor” (mushrif)… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 06:41 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 A New Axis: Strategic Coordination between the Houthis and Iraqi Factions By Adnan al-Jabarni On May 23, Abdelmalek al-Houthi, leader of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah), announced that Houthi forces had begun coordinating military operations with Iran-backed Iraqi militant groups. The partnership was publicly unveiled as part of the “fourth phase of escalation” in the Houthi response to Israel’s war against Palestinians in Gaza. Under the fourth phase, the Houthis would expand the targeting of commercial shipping to the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, as well as continue to carry out attacks in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Aden. In subsequent weekly speeches, the Houthi leader repeatedly referenced progress in coordination and cooperation with the Iraqi groups. This foreshadowing culminated in a June 6 announcement by Houthi military spokesman Yahya… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 06:13 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 Abdelmajeed al-Zindani: The Demise of Political Islam’s Leading Figure in Yemen By Tawfeek Al-Ganad With a long flaming red beard, distinctive square face, unconventional white turban, and a voice that was immediately recognizable – Abdelmajeed al-Zindani was perhaps the most famous political-religious figure in Yemen of the past 50 years, a controversial persona who stirred endless debate, even after his death on April 22 in Istanbul at the age of 82. Al-Zindani was born in the Al-Sha’ar district of Ibb governorate in 1942 and learned to read and write in its traditional kuttab school. He moved to Aden to continue his education and subsequently to Cairo, where he started the enigmatic journey of his political life between Yemen, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, and, finally, Turkey. In the 1950s, Al-Zindani was affiliated with the pan-Arab… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 11:13 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 The Uphill Struggle for Yemeni Women in Academia By Rim Mugahed April 27 marked the 13th anniversary of the death of Dr. Raufah Hassan, one of Yemen’s most prominent academics, feminists, and activists. In 1993, she founded the first Women’s Studies Unit at Sana’a University, which later became the Empirical Research and Women’s Studies Center. A pioneering undertaking of its time, the research center gained notoriety among Yemenis because of the backlash received from religious conservatives. Due to the center’s work, Hassan became the primary target in religiously motivated incitement campaigns, prompting her to leave Yemen for several years. Decades later, bitter questions remain: Has anything changed concerning the lived realities of female academics in Yemen? And what of the future of women’s studies centers in the country? Although Yemen has… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 06:23 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 What a New President and a Looming Succession Means for Iran’s Yemen Policy By Thomas Juneau The death of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, as well as the foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in a helicopter accident on May 19 raises the question of the impact of their disappearance from the scene on the country’s foreign policy regarding Yemen. The answer for the short term is straightforward: Raisi’s death will have a marginal impact on the country’s foreign policy, in general and specifically in Yemen. In the mid to longer term, however, the situation becomes less clear because of the eventual succession to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old and has had cancer. Because Raisi was a potential candidate to succeed him, his death changed the dynamics… Continue reading