Analysis

Analysis April 9, 2024 05:05 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Iran’s View of Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Protecting Gains and Limiting Costs By Thomas Juneau The war in Gaza has presented the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) with an opportunity to consolidate power inside Yemen and expand its regional influence. To achieve these aims, the Houthis have launched dozens of attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. Domestically, this has allowed them to mobilize strong pro-Palestinian feeling among the Yemeni population. Regionally, it has helped the Houthis further establish themselves as an emerging power, as they have demonstrated that they have both the capability and the intent to obstruct shipping in one of the global economy’s crucial maritime chokepoints. To understand Iran’s interests and perceptions regarding the crisis in the Red Sea, it is useful to examine its approach to Yemen prior to Hamas’s attack on… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 23, 2023 11:05 MIN September and October 2023 Bios: The Houthi Delegates to Riyadh By Adnan al-Jabarni A Houthi delegation flew to Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, on September 14 for the latest round of negotiations to end nine years of war in Yemen. A year after the United Nations officially brokered a truce in April 2022, talks have slowly shifted from backchannels to direct public meetings. The high visibility of their first-ever confirmed visit to Saudi Arabia reveals new information about the insular Houthi group (Ansar Allah). Moreover, a comparison of the latest Houthi delegation to the members who participated in consultations from 2018 through 2022 shows the extent of the group’s transformation. Overall, diversity has declined. In previous years, the Houthis included representatives from the General People’s Congress (GPC) and other independent political parties that the… Continue reading Analysis November 20, 2023 05:17 MIN September and October 2023 Cyclone Tej Undescores Yemen’s Climate Crisis Ahead of COP 28 By Musaed Aklan Cyclone Tej struck Yemen in the last week of October, ripping through the archipelago of Socotra, making landfall in the governorate of Al-Mahra, and wreaking havoc in Hadramawt, Shabwa, and Al-Dhalea. The cyclone brought rainfall and severe flooding, destroyed homes and roads, cut off electricity and communication networks, and displaced thousands of families. According to the Yemen Red Crescent Society, over 35,000 households were impacted by the latest cyclone to hit Yemen. Cyclones in Yemen have increased in frequency, posing serious risks to vulnerable coastal populations and infrastructure. In the past six years alone, whilst grappling with an almost decade-long conflict, Yemen was hit by six cyclones, compared to only four in the preceding 25 years. An increase in extreme… Continue reading Analysis September 14, 2023 20:46 MIN August 2023 What Remains of the Hashid’s Power? The Rise and Fall of Yemen’s Most Powerful Tribe By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen A decade of seismic shifts in Yemen’s political landscape has seen the influence of one of its most powerful tribes wane. Among Yemenis and observers alike, however, developments within the Hashid tribal confederation continue to be closely watched, and merit closer scrutiny. The Hashid’s large presence in Amran, which borders the governorate of Sana’a from the north, has historically been instrumental in defining who controls the capital. The tribe’s backing of republicans during the 1962 revolution and ensuing civil war gave the Hashid unparalleled privileges in the decades that followed. Three out of five presidents of North Yemen hailed from the Hashid, including Ali Abdullah Saleh, whose reign spanned more than three decades into the unified Republic of Yemen. Today,… Continue reading Analysis March 10, 2023 14:53 MIN January-February 2023 Israel’s Maritime Security in the Red Sea: Historical Competition and the New Houthi Challenge By Ahmed El-Deeb Since the early days of the conflict in Yemen, the Houthi movement has been in control of much of the Red Sea coastline. The waterway serves as the main artery for trade between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, estimated at about US$700 billion a year. Some 4 million barrels of oil pass through Bab al-Mandab Strait every day en route to Europe, and about 25,000 ships, or 7 percent of world maritime trade. As a result, Houthi control over parts of the Red Sea has been a subject of international concern, including in Israel. Asian imports and exports account for about a quarter of Israel’s total foreign trade, transiting mainly via Red Sea routes, making the safety of… Continue reading Analysis July 11, 2022 15:39 MIN June 2022 Entrenched Power: The Houthi System of Governance By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen One of the challenges to ending the war in Yemen is the changing nature of the Yemeni state under Houthi rule. The Zaidi Shia movement has created facts on the ground that considerably complicate the work of bringing the various parties together in a new political arrangement. The de facto Houthi authority has effectively transformed the institutions of government in Sana’a as part of a project to build its own state. The group has deployed sectarian doctrine, built a large army and created an extensive network of supra-governmental supervisors, widening the gap between society and rulers. It is hard to imagine this vast political and economic network voluntarily dismantling to share power with other Yemeni factions. Although the group calls… Continue reading Analysis June 9, 2022 08:50 MIN May 2022 The Nordics Aspire to Promote Peace in Yemen, but the Reality is More Complex By Johannes Jauhiainen Finland, Sweden and Norway all actively provide humanitarian aid to Yemen, despite limited public pressure to do so. Each of these Nordic countries also has engaged diplomatically, urging warring parties and other stakeholders to the negotiating table. Sweden acted as host for a set of talks that gave birth to the 2018 Stockholm Agreement, while Norway and Finland have made efforts to promote broad participation and inclusion in the peace talks. At the same time, however, all three have sold military equipment to Saudi-led coalition members. And despite public outcries condemning these arms shipments, temporary freezes on export permits have had a limited effect. This article explores the roles Norway, Finland and Sweden have played in Yemen since 2014, to… Continue reading