Analysis

Analysis February 21, 2024 28:54 MIN Yemen’s Vulnerability to Climate Change: How to Strengthen Adaptation By Helen Lackner This policy brief summarizes the environmental issues Yemen faces and outlines policy and technical responses to limit their impact. These include environmental problems caused by the absence of state intervention or by misguided policies, and those that are symptoms of global warming, pointing out the frequent synergy between them. Yemen, like other developing countries, suffers the consequences of climate change while having insignificant responsibility for causing them. Water scarcity is Yemen’s major environmental problem, which demands urgent attention. Other environmental issues include the deterioration of ecosystems, oil related and other pollution, sanitation issues, waste disposal, fisheries, and rising sea levels. The problems are due to a synergy between human interventions and external global warming features. In the course of earlier… Continue reading Analysis January 12, 2024 08:04 MIN US and UK Strike Houthi Targets in Yemen: Reaction from Sana’a Center Experts By Abdulghani Al-Iryani, Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, Hussam Radman, Maged Al-Madhaji, and Bilqees Al-Lahbi The United States and Britain carried out air and missile strikes against Houthi targets in the early hours of January 12, following two months of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The maritime attacks caused major shippers to reroute, disrupting international commerce and threatening a new round of global inflation. The airstrikes appear to have struck targets in Sana’a, Sa’ada, Hajjah, Hudayadh, and Taiz governorates. Houthi authorities said five people were killed and six wounded, and vowed to continue Red Sea operations as long as Israel’s war on Gaza continues. The United States has accused Iran of providing the military capabilities and intelligence behind the Houthi attacks. The US-UK action was supported militarily by Australia, Bahrain, Canada,… Continue reading Analysis December 11, 2023 06:12 MIN How the Gaza Crisis Could Bring Iran and Al-Qaeda in Yemen Together By Assim al-Sabri In early November, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance in the region had no prior knowledge of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation carried out by Hamas against Israel on October 7. This could be true from a tactical and operational perspective, since Hamas’ military wing, the Qassam Brigades, appears to have prepared the operation under a veil of secrecy, excluding even senior Hamas figures. Ultimately, this discretion was one of the reasons for the operation’s success. When viewing the operation from a broader strategic perspective, however, it becomes difficult to separate it from escalatory Iranian language and actions in the preceding weeks. On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting in September, Iranian President… Continue reading Analysis November 20, 2023 15:26 MIN September and October 2023 The Black Waters of Total By Quentin Müller A strange curse seems to be hanging over Sah district. Cultivable plots, once lush with crops, pastures, limes, watermelons, and onions, have been abandoned. Blackened at the base, twisted and staggering, the trail of date palms stands out in the desolate landscape. On his doorstep sits 36-year-old Mohammed Ali Salem Sourour, listening to the song of the birds, which are increasingly rare in this region. In the darkness of the house, a small child hesitates to step into the light. His 6-year-old son Adam finally reveals a startling birth defect. One eye, larger than the other, seemed to have detached from his left eyebrow, dropping a few centimeters below. “We live in the most poisoned land in Yemen,” says Mohammed,… Continue reading Analysis November 20, 2023 05:17 MIN September and October 2023 Cyclone Tej Undescores Yemen’s Climate Crisis Ahead of COP 28 By Musaed Aklan Cyclone Tej struck Yemen in the last week of October, ripping through the archipelago of Socotra, making landfall in the governorate of Al-Mahra, and wreaking havoc in Hadramawt, Shabwa, and Al-Dhalea. The cyclone brought rainfall and severe flooding, destroyed homes and roads, cut off electricity and communication networks, and displaced thousands of families. According to the Yemen Red Crescent Society, over 35,000 households were impacted by the latest cyclone to hit Yemen. Cyclones in Yemen have increased in frequency, posing serious risks to vulnerable coastal populations and infrastructure. In the past six years alone, whilst grappling with an almost decade-long conflict, Yemen was hit by six cyclones, compared to only four in the preceding 25 years. An increase in extreme… Continue reading Analysis November 20, 2023 03:11 MIN September and October 2023 The Poisonous Egos in Yemen’s Tragedy By Farea Al-Muslimi The arrival of a Houthi delegation in Riyadh on September 14 represents a breakthrough after nine bitter years of war. The bilateral negotiations with Saudi Prince Khaled Bin Salman have been widely celebrated and encouraged, though there are myriad grounds for skepticism. But the moment is important as well as symbolic - it marks the dampening of the dangerous and destructive egotism that sparked and sustained Yemen’s tragic conflict. Nearly a decade of war, with hundreds of thousands of Yemenis killed, has undone years of progress and development, setting the country back at least a century. There are numerous reasons why the war began, not least the failed national dialogue process after the fall of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the… Continue reading Analysis October 13, 2023 18:39 MIN Al-Qaeda’s Shifting Alliances During the Yemen War By Abu Bakr Ahmed During the fighting in Shabwa last year and more recently in Abyan, forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) locked horns with Islah-affiliated government forces. Both sides accused the other of links to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Such claims have been a feature of the war since 2015, but are usually more rhetorical than real, lacking evidence on the ground. Over the last year, however, AQAP has been more publicly sympathetic to the Islamist Islah party than is normal in its often guarded comments. In a speech in August 2022 by Abu Ali al-Hadrami, a top-tier leader who rarely appears in media, the group expressed frustration that the STC-backed Shabwa Defense forces and UAE-backed Giants Brigades forces… Continue reading Analysis September 18, 2023 14:38 MIN Houthis Make Official Visit to Riyadh for Talks with Saudi Arabia By Maged Al-Madhaji, Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, Hussam Radman, Abdulghani Al-Iryani, and Thomas Juneau A senior Houthi delegation arrived in Riyadh on September 14, the first such trip since the outset of the conflict. Bilateral Saudi-Houthi talks began in earnest after a failure to extend a UN-backed truce last year and accelerated after a Beijing-brokered détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the spring. Talks appeared to stall over the summer, but the visit suggests progress on a deal could be shortly forthcoming. The precise details of the negotiations have not been made public. The Saudis are looking to wind down their involvement in the war, fueling concerns that they will abandon the internationally recognized government and ignore the concerns and priorities of other Yemeni parties in their haste to leave, leading to further… Continue reading Analysis September 14, 2023 20:46 MIN August 2023 What Remains of the Hashid’s Power? The Rise and Fall of Yemen’s Most Powerful Tribe By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen A decade of seismic shifts in Yemen’s political landscape has seen the influence of one of its most powerful tribes wane. Among Yemenis and observers alike, however, developments within the Hashid tribal confederation continue to be closely watched, and merit closer scrutiny. The Hashid’s large presence in Amran, which borders the governorate of Sana’a from the north, has historically been instrumental in defining who controls the capital. The tribe’s backing of republicans during the 1962 revolution and ensuing civil war gave the Hashid unparalleled privileges in the decades that followed. Three out of five presidents of North Yemen hailed from the Hashid, including Ali Abdullah Saleh, whose reign spanned more than three decades into the unified Republic of Yemen. Today,… Continue reading Analysis July 11, 2023 09:18 MIN The Presidential Council’s Year of Failure By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen The May announcement by Aiderous al-Zubaidi, head of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), that two fellow members from the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) will join the STC, was the final nail in the coffin for the council. The PLC’s eight-member body has been divided since its unnatural creation in April 2022, but this latest disruption to the delicate balance of power — three members now sharing STC interests — signals a rift the council cannot recover from. The relationship between the STC and PLC has devolved into an unchecked rivalry, as the former calls for an independent southern state in a direct challenge to the latter’s authority. In just over a year, Yemen’s top executive political body has become paralyzed… Continue reading Analysis May 15, 2023 04:10 MIN April 2023 An Unfinished Deal: Yemen’s Prisoner Exchanges By Tawfeek Al-Ganad Over the course of three days — April 14, 15, and 16 — 887 prisoners were exchanged among Yemen’s warring parties in a deal facilitated by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Houthi forces released 706 detainees in exchange for 181 prisoners held by forces affiliated with the internationally recognized government and the Arab coalition. While most detainees were Yemeni nationals, the exchange also led to the release of 16 Saudi nationals and three Sudanese soldiers. ICRC planes transferred prisoners from six airports in Yemen and Saudi Arabia: Sana'a, Aden, Al-Makha, Tadaween (near Marib), and Abha and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. On April 17, Saudi Arabia unilaterally announced the release of an additional 104 Yemeni detainees, bringing the… Continue reading Analysis March 10, 2023 14:53 MIN January-February 2023 Israel’s Maritime Security in the Red Sea: Historical Competition and the New Houthi Challenge By Ahmed El-Deeb Since the early days of the conflict in Yemen, the Houthi movement has been in control of much of the Red Sea coastline. The waterway serves as the main artery for trade between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, estimated at about US$700 billion a year. Some 4 million barrels of oil pass through Bab al-Mandab Strait every day en route to Europe, and about 25,000 ships, or 7 percent of world maritime trade. As a result, Houthi control over parts of the Red Sea has been a subject of international concern, including in Israel. Asian imports and exports account for about a quarter of Israel’s total foreign trade, transiting mainly via Red Sea routes, making the safety of… Continue reading