Analysis

Analysis October 16, 2024 07:23 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Egypt Maneuvers in the Horn of Africa By Maher Abu al-Majd Since October 2023, the Middle East has witnessed a series of geopolitical developments, which Cairo has perceived as a direct threat to its national security. These include: 1) the Israeli war on Gaza; 2) Houthi escalation in the Red Sea and a subsequent decline in Suez Canal revenue; 3) Ethiopia's quest for a seaport and plans to establish a naval base on the coast of Somaliland; and 4) the crisis in Libya and the potential for renewed conflict. This rapid succession of events has shattered Egypt's longstanding pillars of foreign policy, which for four decades were built on the principles of good neighborliness, non-intervention, and investing in mediation and diplomacy. In response, Cairo has undertaken a series of proactive measures… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 03:44 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 A Snapshot of Yemeni Public Sentiment on Red Sea Developments By Lara Uhlenhaut, Yazeed Al-Jeddawy, and Mona Ghaleb A rapid survey conducted by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies indicates that Yemeni support for Houthi operations in the Red Sea does not necessarily equate with a favorable view of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). Following the first US-UK retaliatory military strikes carried out in January this year, more than 400 Yemeni respondents across 11 governorates were asked their views on Houthi operations in the Red Sea, their perceived impact on the war in Gaza, and the effects of this escalation on peace prospects in the country. As the Houthis gain more regional and global clout, the survey provides an insightful glimpse into how their actions are perceived among Yemenis and the impact of these on their hopes for… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 07:06 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Houthi Authorities Undermine Judicial Independence with Major Reforms By Mohammed Al-Shuwaiter In a new assault on the judiciary, the Houthi-controlled House of Representatives approved several amendments to the 1991 law on judicial power in mid-September 2024. This is not the first infringement on judicial independence since the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) staged a coup, taking control of Sana’a in 2014. They are systematically tightening their grip over the judiciary along racial and sectarian lines. The Houthis deliberately changed the legal structure of the judiciary and introduced what they called a “justice system” – a special committee tasked with overseeing the functions of the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC). The committee is headed by Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council. They also created unofficial posts of “supervisor” (mushrif)… Continue reading Analysis July 26, 2024 03:30 MIN The Houthi Strike on Tel Aviv: A Non-Escalatory Escalation By Abdulghani Al-Iryani On July 19, a Houthi drone struck an apartment building a few hundred meters from the US Embassy branch office in Tel Aviv, killing one person and injuring a dozen others. The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) announced that they used a Yafa drone that carries a high explosive payload and is equipped with stealth technology. Experts reported that the Yafa is an upgraded version of the Samad 3 drone, which has been used effectively by the Houthis before, most notably in the attack on Abu Dhabi Airport in July 2018. A Yemeni military who spoke with the Sana’a Center speculated that the drone was launched from Kamaran Island in the Red Sea and avoided detection by flying over Eritrea, Sudan,… Continue reading Analysis July 23, 2024 10:10 MIN Saudis Give In to Houthi Pressure, Force CBY-Aden to Back Down By Ned Whalley, and Wadhah Al-Awlaqi Threatened with new attacks, Saudi Arabia has forced the Yemeni government to abandon efforts to cut off the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) from the international banking system. Financial sanctions enacted by the government-aligned Central Bank of Yemen in Aden (CBY-Aden) were perhaps the government’s last card in its efforts to negotiate economic relief or affect the power imbalance ahead of presumptive peace talks. Under enormous Saudi pressure, Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) canceled measures to consolidate control of the banking sector and financially isolate the Houthi-held north. The CBY-Aden’s position quickly became untenable without political support, and it has been forced to reverse course. The UN Special Envoy’s Office (OSESGY) has now announced that the government and the Houthis have… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 06:41 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 A New Axis: Strategic Coordination between the Houthis and Iraqi Factions By Adnan al-Jabarni On May 23, Abdelmalek al-Houthi, leader of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah), announced that Houthi forces had begun coordinating military operations with Iran-backed Iraqi militant groups. The partnership was publicly unveiled as part of the “fourth phase of escalation” in the Houthi response to Israel’s war against Palestinians in Gaza. Under the fourth phase, the Houthis would expand the targeting of commercial shipping to the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, as well as continue to carry out attacks in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Aden. In subsequent weekly speeches, the Houthi leader repeatedly referenced progress in coordination and cooperation with the Iraqi groups. This foreshadowing culminated in a June 6 announcement by Houthi military spokesman Yahya… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 06:13 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 Abdelmajeed al-Zindani: The Demise of Political Islam’s Leading Figure in Yemen By Tawfeek Al-Ganad With a long flaming red beard, distinctive square face, unconventional white turban, and a voice that was immediately recognizable – Abdelmajeed al-Zindani was perhaps the most famous political-religious figure in Yemen of the past 50 years, a controversial persona who stirred endless debate, even after his death on April 22 in Istanbul at the age of 82. Al-Zindani was born in the Al-Sha’ar district of Ibb governorate in 1942 and learned to read and write in its traditional kuttab school. He moved to Aden to continue his education and subsequently to Cairo, where he started the enigmatic journey of his political life between Yemen, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, and, finally, Turkey. In the 1950s, Al-Zindani was affiliated with the pan-Arab… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 11:13 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 The Uphill Struggle for Yemeni Women in Academia By Rim Mugahed April 27 marked the 13th anniversary of the death of Dr. Raufah Hassan, one of Yemen’s most prominent academics, feminists, and activists. In 1993, she founded the first Women’s Studies Unit at Sana’a University, which later became the Empirical Research and Women’s Studies Center. A pioneering undertaking of its time, the research center gained notoriety among Yemenis because of the backlash received from religious conservatives. Due to the center’s work, Hassan became the primary target in religiously motivated incitement campaigns, prompting her to leave Yemen for several years. Decades later, bitter questions remain: Has anything changed concerning the lived realities of female academics in Yemen? And what of the future of women’s studies centers in the country? Although Yemen has… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 06:23 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 What a New President and a Looming Succession Means for Iran’s Yemen Policy By Thomas Juneau The death of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, as well as the foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in a helicopter accident on May 19 raises the question of the impact of their disappearance from the scene on the country’s foreign policy regarding Yemen. The answer for the short term is straightforward: Raisi’s death will have a marginal impact on the country’s foreign policy, in general and specifically in Yemen. In the mid to longer term, however, the situation becomes less clear because of the eventual succession to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old and has had cancer. Because Raisi was a potential candidate to succeed him, his death changed the dynamics… Continue reading Analysis June 5, 2024 34:33 MIN Houthi Media: A Study in Ideological Warfare By Burhan Ahmed In April 2023, a Saudi delegation was invited to visit the Houthi-held capital of Sana’a. Over the next couple of days, the media arm of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) distributed a series of photographs to international and local media outlets featuring Mahdi al-Mashat, head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council, smiling warmly in a stately reception hall and shaking the hand of Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed bin Saeed al-Jaber. These photos were extensively reprinted, appearing on NBC, Reuters, BBC, and Al-Arabiya, as well as in local outlets from the Baltics to Beijing. This sleek image of Houthi diplomacy is far from the militant and adversarial rhetoric circulated by founder Hussein al-Houthi and the outrage voiced by insurgent… Continue reading Analysis May 31, 2024 19:13 MIN Batarfi’s Death and Al-Qaeda in Yemen’s New Emir: What Comes Next? By Assim al-Sabri Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) made a surprise announcement on March 10, 2024, publicizing the death of its leader, Khaled Batarfi, and the appointment of Saad al-Awlaqi as his successor. Al-Qaeda’s official statement, delivered by jihadist leader Khabib al-Sudani, did not disclose any details about the manner of Batarfi’s death. This might be the first time that news of the death of a senior Al-Qaeda leader was shrouded in such mystery. In the past, the United States was the first to announce the assassination of jihadist leaders – as happened with former AQAP leaders Nasser al-Wuhayshi and Qassim al-Raymi, as well as with global Al-Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. Al-Qaeda would then deny the news, or… Continue reading Analysis April 9, 2024 05:05 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Iran’s View of Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Protecting Gains and Limiting Costs By Thomas Juneau The war in Gaza has presented the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) with an opportunity to consolidate power inside Yemen and expand its regional influence. To achieve these aims, the Houthis have launched dozens of attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. Domestically, this has allowed them to mobilize strong pro-Palestinian feeling among the Yemeni population. Regionally, it has helped the Houthis further establish themselves as an emerging power, as they have demonstrated that they have both the capability and the intent to obstruct shipping in one of the global economy’s crucial maritime chokepoints. To understand Iran’s interests and perceptions regarding the crisis in the Red Sea, it is useful to examine its approach to Yemen prior to Hamas’s attack on… Continue reading