Analysis

Analysis September 6, 2017 12:54 MIN How currency arbitrage has reduced the funds available to address the humanitarian crisis The disparity between the official exchange rate and the market exchange rate of the Yemeni rial that developed during the current conflict led to large-scale profiteering through currency arbitrage. In particular, Yemeni banks exchanging foreign funds for international humanitarian organizations reaped significant profits at the expense of the intended aid recipients in Yemen. The Central Bank of Yemen’s (CBY) decision this August to float the rial, while helpful in reducing currency arbitrage, is optimal for neither currency stability nor humanitarian aid purposes. Given the central bank’s current weakness, the thinness of the country’s exchange market and the potential for volatility on a day-to-day basis when large transactions occur, fully floating the rial risks its rapid devaluation – a critical issue… Continue reading Analysis August 5, 2017 19:35 MIN The destabilizing legacy of US military aid and counterterrorism efforts in Yemen By Adam Baron, Maged Al-Madhaji and Waleed Alhariri Since the administration of United States President George W. Bush, Washington has provided military assistance to the Yemeni government under the stated goal of bolstering the Yemeni Armed Forces’ capacity to combat Yemen’s local branch of al-Qaeda. This assistance was fairly consistently provided up until the outbreak of the most recent conflict in 2015, irrespective of the domestic upheaval taking place in Yemen. Widely supported by US officials, this military assistance has had undemocratic and destabilizing consequences for Yemen. For instance, in the early 2000s, American aid to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh allowed him to consolidate power around his family through the placement of his sons and nephews in key positions… Continue reading Analysis June 17, 2017 10:18 MIN Iran and Houthis: Between political alliances and sectarian tensions By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen Houthis’ missiles targeting Saudi Arabia became more developed and far-reaching during the current war, thus prompting questions about Iran’s role in Yemen. Many stories circulated about Iran smuggling weapons to Houthis despite the blockade and tight control on all air, land and sea ports in the country. It is also believed that Iranian experts are developing Houthis’ weapon capacities. Articles and research papers either undermine the Iranian-Houthi relationship questioning any ties between them to appease Saudi Arabia’s concerns and dismiss its war on Yemen as unnecessary, or they represent Houthis as Iranian puppets, thus making the Saudi war a proxy one against Iran and serving the strategic goals of the kingdom. But, many facts prove that the truth lies somewhere… Continue reading Analysis May 29, 2017 16:16 MIN Iran’s Role in Yemen Exaggerated, but Destructive By Farea Al-Muslimi Since March 2015, Saudi Arabia and ten other countries have been conducting a bloody airstrike campaign against the Houthi rebel forces in Yemen. The campaign, meant to counter what Saudis call the “Iranian Threat” in the Arabian Peninsula, had received limited support from the Obama Administration, but Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners are now operating with a freer hand from the Trump White House. One of the main U.S. justifications for arming and supporting the Saudi war in Yemen is the claim that the Houthis—a Yemeni Zaydi Shia-led rebel group—are Iranian proxies, seeking to overthrow the government of Yemen and bring it under Iranian influence. The Houthis and Iran, on the other hand, deny a close relationship and downplay… Continue reading Analysis May 6, 2017 05:27 MIN The endless battle in Taiz By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen Taiz is the site of the longest-running battle ground in the Yemen war, which began when Houthi forces took over the city on March 25, 2015. Initially, the Houthis were confronted by peaceful demonstrations which they repressed heavily, killing six demonstrators in the process. The situation rapidly developed into armed conflict when the war erupted after the Houthis invaded the south, prompting the Saudi-led coalition to launch a counteroffensive on March 26, 2015. Taiz is centrally located in Yemen, and is the country’s third most populous city. Although large parts of Taiz were reportedly liberated from Houthi dominance, the “Taiz liberation operation” was never launched with serious intent. Taiz has been described as the heart of Yemen’s 2011 uprising against… Continue reading Analysis March 31, 2017 10:10 MIN Rapid currency depreciation and the decimation of Yemeni purchasing power International financial intervention is urgently needed to protect the value of the Yemen’s domestic currency. If this support is not forthcoming in the immediate near-term the Yemeni rial faces rapid depreciation; in a country that imports nearly 90 percent of its nutritional needs this depreciation would decimate the ability of most Yemenis to purchase food and other basic necessities. The two-year-old civil war and regional military intervention in Yemen has already helped create the world’s largest food security emergency, with millions of people currently facing starvation; a steep decline in remaining per capita purchasing power would significantly accelerate the spread of famine. Economic pressures stemming from the two-year-old civil war and regional military intervention in Yemen have taken their toll… Continue reading Analysis March 27, 2017 24:52 MIN The Limits of US Military Power in Yemen: Why Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula continues to thrive By Farea Al-Muslimi Similar to US counterterrorism efforts in Yemen under President Barack Obama, the newly minted White House administration of Donald Trump has shown little appetite to explore non-military policy options to supplement the use of American firepower in Yemen. Indeed, shortly after taking office President Trump authorized the escalation of drone strikes and special forces operations in Yemen. The Trump administration’s 2017 budget proposal to congress also outlines massive cuts in US diplomatic and humanitarian spending, even as the UN declared last month that Yemen faces the largest food security emergency in the world. Such a myopic focus on the military option in the battle against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) indicates a failure to grasp why AQAP has… Continue reading Analysis November 25, 2016 10:02 MIN Trump and the Yemen war With America deeply enmeshed in Yemen’s multifaceted civil war, the policy choices of US President-elect Donald J. Trump will have major repercussions for Yemen and the wider Middle East. The question remains: what will Trump's policies be? Under the Obama administration, United States policy toward Yemen was largely driven by regional concerns and counter-terrorism initiatives, with the drone campaign targeting Al Qaeda leaders in Yemen today remaining among America’s most intense. The Arab Spring uprisings, which reached Yemen in early 2011, complicated America’s regional relationships and seemed to sour Obama’s appetite for democratization. This became apparent in Yemen when the White House helped install a US-friendly administration in Sana’a after long-time ally President Ali Abdullah Saleh was ousted. Saleh was… Continue reading Analysis May 15, 2016 04:12 MIN Beware of the failure of Yemen’s central bank For the past 18 months, Yemen has been going through one of the most chaotic times of its modern history. Since the Houthi takeover of the capital, Sanaa, on Sept. 21, 2014, the country has been witnessing a gradual collapse of the state, which was accelerated when President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi left Sanaa for Aden and then for Riyadh. By March 2015, the Houthi rebel group was the de facto power running the country. As the war continues, most of the country’s public institutions are barely functioning. The health sector cannot provide for the wounded and the sick with three doctors per 10,000 people, while 14 million people need help accessing health care. Education in schools and universities has… Continue reading Analysis March 3, 2016 05:15 MIN How US counterterror strategy has crashed and burned in Yemen – and what to try instead By Farea Al-Muslimi And Larry Attree After 15 years of US efforts to combat terror and achieve stability in Yemen, a new study by Saferworld concludes that these efforts—as in the cases of Afghanistan and Somalia—have badly backfired. Today, Yemen requires not more military intervention, but strategies to counter corrupt and abusive government and to show its people that their security and rights matter. Feeding off deep public resentment of an abusive and corrupt state, Houthi rebels and other militants have taken charge of large swathes of Yemen. With the country locked in a brutal civil war that has drawn in regional powers, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula remains strong and the Islamic State (ISIS or IS) launched several bloody attacks in Yemen… Continue reading Analysis January 8, 2016 07:43 MIN Geography of War and Agriculture in Yemen By Farea Al-Muslimi Why is war a more common occurrence in some parts of Yemen than in others? Why do cities like Aden recover quickly from wars? And why do their youth rush to clean up streets and restore normalcy? Why do wars quickly cease in cities like Taiz and Ibb, but are quick to flare up over and over around Sanaa? It is basically a matter of the economy. In the tribal North, where a war economy prevails, tribes thrive on conflicts. This contrasts sharply with the peasant tribes of central and southern Yemen that rely on an agriculture-based economy. In other words, war in Taiz hampers the agricultural economy and brings the lives of farmers to a grinding halt, while the… Continue reading