Analysis

Analysis August 12, 2022 02:51 MIN July 2022 Al-Zawahiri’s Death and the End of Bin Laden’s Legacy By Hussam Radman Osama bin Laden had always admired his loyal soldiers in Yemen. In particular, he respected his secretary from the Afghan jihad years, whom he viewed as his spiritual successor, Nasser al-Wuhayshi. It was Al-Wuhayshi who took over the task of rebuilding Al-Qaeda in Yemen, before merging it with its Saudi branch to form Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Driven by an ambition to move the jihadist command center to Yemen, which he saw as an “Afghanistan with access to the sea,” Bin Laden prepared Al-Wuhayshi to be Al-Qaeda’s next leader. Convinced of his organizational abilities and charisma, Bin Laden granted Al-Wuhayshi exceptional powers, ordering other branches of Al-Qaeda to follow the example of Yemenis in adapting to their local… Continue reading Analysis August 12, 2022 06:45 MIN July 2022 Yemen’s Children Born and Raised in Displacement By Mohammed Ali Kalfood Mariam was 13 years old when she escaped with her family from fighting near their hometown Al-Shalilah, a village outside the port city of Haradh in northern Hajjah governorate. After first finding refuge in the Al-Shia’ab camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs), less than two years later, at the age of 14, she was married off to a fellow villager from Al-Shalilah. However, she would soon be on the run again as fighting in Hajjah created new waves of IDPs, including many who had already been uprooted. The family then took shelter in the Bani Hassan camp in Abs district, at the time the largest IDP settlement in Hajjah, with around 5,000 families overseen by a consortium of international aid… Continue reading Analysis August 1, 2022 01:53 MIN Prisoners of their Words: The Houthi View on Renewing the Truce By Abdulghani Al-Iryani Ansar Allah, the armed Houthi movement, does not seem to mind extending the truce, but they fear the intentions of those who call for its renewal. In their world view, the US can only be up to no good in Yemen, so Washington’s repeated calls for a new truce are special cause for concern. As per their famous slogan, “Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse on the Jews,” the US, Israel and Jews are natural enemies of Yemenis and Muslims. That is the standard line in all schools and universities in Houthi-controlled areas, as well as in the indoctrination camps they hold for public servants. In private meetings, Houthi leaders argue that this discourse is necessary propaganda, dictated by… Continue reading Analysis July 19, 2022 29:40 MIN Politics despite the war: Yemeni political elites in Cairo By Marine Poirier Seven years of war in Yemen have wrought widespread destruction and economic devastation and seen hundreds of thousands flee from their home country. Like many of their compatriots, a great number of Yemeni politicians now live abroad, where most struggle to maintain their power and relevance. While attention often centers on leaders of warring factions, this paper examines the situation of (once) influential Yemeni politicians as they try to preserve their positions and local connections in exile, eyeing the challenges and opportunities of a post-war environment. In order to do so, this paper focuses on Cairo, one of the regional hubs where Yemeni politics has reorganized since the conflict’s outbreak, and where many political elites have found refuge. It examines… Continue reading Analysis July 11, 2022 15:39 MIN June 2022 Entrenched Power: The Houthi System of Governance By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen One of the challenges to ending the war in Yemen is the changing nature of the Yemeni state under Houthi rule. The Zaidi Shia movement has created facts on the ground that considerably complicate the work of bringing the various parties together in a new political arrangement. The de facto Houthi authority has effectively transformed the institutions of government in Sana’a as part of a project to build its own state. The group has deployed sectarian doctrine, built a large army and created an extensive network of supra-governmental supervisors, widening the gap between society and rulers. It is hard to imagine this vast political and economic network voluntarily dismantling to share power with other Yemeni factions. Although the group calls… Continue reading Analysis June 9, 2022 03:09 MIN May 2022 Truce Extended As Frontlines See Less Violence By Sana’a Center Staff Much as in April, the month of May saw the continued absence of heavy fighting in Yemen during the two-month UN-backed truce announced at the start of Ramadan. Frontlines remained stable, and there were few claims of heavy casualties in the clashes that did occur, although the Yemeni government and Houthi forces accused each other of truce violations throughout May. On June 2, the UN special envoy’s office announced that the Yemeni government and the Houthi movement had agreed to renew the truce, which was scheduled to expire that day, for an additional two months. In Sana’a, where commercial flights resumed in May after a six-year gap, the skies were once again largely empty of Saudi-led coalition traffic, with no… Continue reading Analysis June 9, 2022 08:50 MIN May 2022 The Nordics Aspire to Promote Peace in Yemen, but the Reality is More Complex By Johannes Jauhiainen Finland, Sweden and Norway all actively provide humanitarian aid to Yemen, despite limited public pressure to do so. Each of these Nordic countries also has engaged diplomatically, urging warring parties and other stakeholders to the negotiating table. Sweden acted as host for a set of talks that gave birth to the 2018 Stockholm Agreement, while Norway and Finland have made efforts to promote broad participation and inclusion in the peace talks. At the same time, however, all three have sold military equipment to Saudi-led coalition members. And despite public outcries condemning these arms shipments, temporary freezes on export permits have had a limited effect. This article explores the roles Norway, Finland and Sweden have played in Yemen since 2014, to… Continue reading Analysis June 6, 2022 15:40 MIN Resolving the Yemen-Saudi Border Problem: Time To Revive the Joint Committees By Muhsin Ramadan, and Tawfeek Al-Ganad The question of border demarcation has been one of the most contentious issues in the historical relationship between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Border disputes have been at the heart of many of the tensions between the two countries over the past century. They fought over the border in 1934, resulting in the Treaty of Taif, a non-permanent agreement that reflected the will of Saudi Arabia. But the border was to remain a source of conflict into the 1990s, which saw a number of military skirmishes. When an international agreement eventually ending the dispute was signed in 2000, a series of joint Saudi-Yemeni committees were established to examine security and development issues related to the border, such as watchtowers, joint patrols… Continue reading Analysis May 21, 2022 07:09 MIN What Awaits the Presidential Council in Aden The replacement of President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi with an eight-man presidential council was long-awaited by Yemenis both inside the country and in the diaspora. Bringing together the main factions within the anti-Houthi camp, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) quickly garnered international support – the US, UK and United Nations Security Council welcomed the creation of the PLC, while the UN Special Envoy to Yemen, along with a number of European and Arab ambassadors, attended the swearing-in of the council in Aden on April 19. However, in this new political landscape, the PLC’s path to restoring peace and stability in Yemen is far from certain. In particular, the recent rise in suspected activity by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)… Continue reading Analysis May 16, 2022 10:54 MIN Yemen’s Great Enabler Departs By Farea Al-Muslimi One might be taken in by former Yemeni President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi, until meeting him in person. A very “adi” — mediocre — guy, not somebody whose words convey new knowledge or provoke deeper thought in the listener. That is how I felt walking out of his house in Sana’a in January 2014. At 23 years old, all I gained from the encounter was the courage to smoke in front of my father that afternoon, after he had seen me on the news sitting down with our president. Nothing in Hadi’s speeches or public remarks in the years since has changed my impression, which I came to learn was shared by many others who met him. Now that Hadi… Continue reading Analysis May 3, 2022 05:12 MIN April 2022 Taiz in Power By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen For the first time in Yemen’s modern history, the executive and legislative branches of the government are headed by figures hailing from the governorate of Taiz. Rashad al-Alimi was appointed head of the new Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) in early April. He joins Prime Minister Maeen Abdelmalek Saeed and Speaker of Parliament Sultan al-Barakani – all of them Taizis. This strong national representation for Taiz at this juncture has important implications given the governorate’s unique position in Yemen’s history. While Taiz is politically part of north Yemen, geographically and historically it has always been part of the south. Taiz was the capital of Yemen during one of its most prosperous eras in medieval times, under the rule of the Rasulid… Continue reading Analysis May 3, 2022 04:23 MIN April 2022 What the New Ruling Council Means for the South By Hussam Radman Leaders of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) entered the Yemen peace consultations in Riyadh last month optimistic and prepared to effect a structural change in the Yemeni presidency. The STC arrived with a proposal to appoint two deputies to President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi, one from northern Yemen and a second from the south. The aim was twofold. Through the appointment of STC chief Aiderous al-Zubaidi as one of the vice presidents, the STC would strengthen its political influence and attain tacit recognition of its status as chief representative of the south. Secondly, the removal of Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar as Hadi’s vice president and the appointment of a figure less inimical to the STC would undermine its nemesis, the Islamist… Continue reading