Iran

Yemen Review section October 16, 2024 10:35 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Military and Security — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: July-September 2024 By William Clough Israel struck Yemen directly for the first time during the ongoing conflict in response to a Houthi drone that crept by Israeli defense systems and detonated in Tel Aviv. The July 19 Houthi attack was the first to reach central Israel, and killed one person and wounded 10 others. But it paled in comparison to the Israeli response the following day. Dubbed Operation Outstretched Arm, the retaliation involved five simultaneous airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas of Hudaydah, using missiles launched from F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets. Strikes targeted the port of Hudaydah, and the Ras al-Kathib electricity station, located north of Hudaydah city along the coast. Six people, all Yemen Petroleum Company (YPC) port employees, were killed by the strikes,… Continue reading Yemen Review section October 16, 2024 14:25 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Politics and Diplomacy — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: July-September 2024 By Casey Coombs The Houthi Security and Intelligence Service has continued airing forced confessions by former employees of the US embassy in Sana’a, making increasingly outlandish claims of decades-long US spy operations in the country. The latest episodes, aired June 29, July 14, August 17, and September 1-2, focused on purported efforts to influence Yemeni culture, society, politics, and the education sector. Previous segments detailed alleged efforts to influence Yemen’s economy and agricultural sector. Regarding allegations of cultural interference, the Yemeni detainees (referred to as spies in the videos) discussed how the embassy’s cultural and media attachés worked in coordination with the CIA. English language courses offered by institutes such as the Yemen American Language Institute (YALI) and America-Mideast Educational and Training Services… Continue reading Yemen Review section July 15, 2024 05:05 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 Turkey and the Red Sea Crisis By Maher Abu al-Majd Turkey’s meaningful engagement with Africa began during the rule of the Justice and Development Party in 2008. That year, Turkey hosted the first Turkey-Africa Cooperation Summit. Ankara’s quest for new horizons in its political and economic relations came during a period of notable economic growth, and over the past 15 years, it has successfully carved out a substantial presence in Africa, a continent ripe with economic prospects. Turkey’s particular focus has been on the Horn of Africa countries, where economic initiatives have an added geostrategic dimension. A key element here is Turkey’s military presence in Somalia, where it established its first military base, Turksom, in 2017. The same year, the ambassador to Turkey from Djibouti signaled a willingness to host… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 06:41 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 A New Axis: Strategic Coordination between the Houthis and Iraqi Factions By Adnan al-Jabarni On May 23, Abdelmalek al-Houthi, leader of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah), announced that Houthi forces had begun coordinating military operations with Iran-backed Iraqi militant groups. The partnership was publicly unveiled as part of the “fourth phase of escalation” in the Houthi response to Israel’s war against Palestinians in Gaza. Under the fourth phase, the Houthis would expand the targeting of commercial shipping to the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, as well as continue to carry out attacks in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Aden. In subsequent weekly speeches, the Houthi leader repeatedly referenced progress in coordination and cooperation with the Iraqi groups. This foreshadowing culminated in a June 6 announcement by Houthi military spokesman Yahya… Continue reading Analysis July 15, 2024 06:23 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 What a New President and a Looming Succession Means for Iran’s Yemen Policy By Thomas Juneau The death of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, as well as the foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in a helicopter accident on May 19 raises the question of the impact of their disappearance from the scene on the country’s foreign policy regarding Yemen. The answer for the short term is straightforward: Raisi’s death will have a marginal impact on the country’s foreign policy, in general and specifically in Yemen. In the mid to longer term, however, the situation becomes less clear because of the eventual succession to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old and has had cancer. Because Raisi was a potential candidate to succeed him, his death changed the dynamics… Continue reading Yemen Review section July 15, 2024 12:41 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 Military and Security — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: April-June 2024 By William Clough In assessing the situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in early April, one might have said Operations Prosperity Guardian and Aspides, the US- and EU-led coalitions tasked with defending the seas from Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, were achieving their declared goals. Attacks on ships were down, and Pentagon officials even speculated that the Houthis could be running out of munitions. But appraising events at the end of June, the facts on the ground now paint a very different picture. Houthi maritime attacks are at an all-time high, and the group is boasting a surprisingly advanced arsenal that has made their attacks more accurate and lethal. At the same time, US officials overseeing the numerous warships protecting… Continue reading Analysis May 31, 2024 19:13 MIN Batarfi’s Death and Al-Qaeda in Yemen’s New Emir: What Comes Next? By Assim al-Sabri Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) made a surprise announcement on March 10, 2024, publicizing the death of its leader, Khaled Batarfi, and the appointment of Saad al-Awlaqi as his successor. Al-Qaeda’s official statement, delivered by jihadist leader Khabib al-Sudani, did not disclose any details about the manner of Batarfi’s death. This might be the first time that news of the death of a senior Al-Qaeda leader was shrouded in such mystery. In the past, the United States was the first to announce the assassination of jihadist leaders – as happened with former AQAP leaders Nasser al-Wuhayshi and Qassim al-Raymi, as well as with global Al-Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. Al-Qaeda would then deny the news, or… Continue reading Editorial April 9, 2024 03:58 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Protect Yemen’s Path to Peace Just six months ago, backchannel Saudi-Houthi peace talks were nearing their conclusion. The basic outlines of a deal were known to government parties and the external players involved in the Yemeni crisis. Many objected to its terms, but Saudi Arabia’s stranglehold over the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) made it feel like a fait accompli. Members of the PLC doubted that the Houthis would ever invite them back into a unified government, except in the most superficial manner. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) feared that the right to self-determination in areas of the former southern state would slip down the agenda. The US, which had been pushing for Saudi Arabia to end the war since 2021, became nervous that Riyadh was… Continue reading Analysis April 9, 2024 05:05 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Iran’s View of Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Protecting Gains and Limiting Costs By Thomas Juneau The war in Gaza has presented the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) with an opportunity to consolidate power inside Yemen and expand its regional influence. To achieve these aims, the Houthis have launched dozens of attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. Domestically, this has allowed them to mobilize strong pro-Palestinian feeling among the Yemeni population. Regionally, it has helped the Houthis further establish themselves as an emerging power, as they have demonstrated that they have both the capability and the intent to obstruct shipping in one of the global economy’s crucial maritime chokepoints. To understand Iran’s interests and perceptions regarding the crisis in the Red Sea, it is useful to examine its approach to Yemen prior to Hamas’s attack on… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 9, 2024 19:34 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Politics and Diplomacy — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: January-March 2024 By Ned Whalley The political situation in Yemen has been completely upended by the regional and domestic fallout wrought by Houthi attacks on maritime shipping and the conflict in Gaza. Peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) are now on hold indefinitely, and the future of a seemingly imminent deal is now unclear. Attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea have continued despite more than two months of American and British airstrikes, which inject further uncertainty into the conflict. The Houthis have built a propaganda campaign around their operations to build support and consolidate control. The divided internationally recognized government lacks the capacity to respond, and with few good options, the West’s strategy remains unclear. With negotiations stalled, Yemen… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 9, 2024 12:41 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Military and Security — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: January-March 2024 By William Clough Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have continued unabated since the beginning of the year, undeterred by a series of countermeasures from the United States and its allies, including retaliatory strikes, a terrorist designation and associated financial sanctions, and the formation of multiple anti-Houthi naval operations. Since January 1, the Houthis have targeted 34 commercial vessels, 13 of which they have successfully hit. Of the targeted ships, at least 13 had clear ownership links to the US or United Kingdom, and an additional eight had ties to companies affiliated with US-, UK-, or Israeli-based entities. Other sources have claimed attacks on an additional four ships, but the Sana’a Center was unable to independently confirm this information. The majority of ships were… Continue reading The Yemen Review February 15, 2024 42:27 MIN The Yemen Annual Review 2023 Peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) dominated Yemeni politics over the last year. The negotiations began as backchannel discussions in October 2022 after the Houthis resisted UN pressure to renew a truce first agreed in April 2022 by making a series of eleventh-hour demands. The talks continued despite Houthi attacks on oil terminals in southern Yemen in late 2022 that effectively put the internationally recognized government under a form of economic blockade. As the months progressed, the government’s increasingly dire economic situation pressured it to accept the Saudi policy of seeking a settlement with Houthi authorities, seemingly at almost any price. The broad terms of a Saudi-Houthi agreement first became public in January, when international… Continue reading