Iran

Publications June 17, 2025 03:59 MIN Beyond Rhetoric: Houthi Options in the Israel-Iran War By Yazeed Al-Jeddawy The rapid escalation between Israel and Iran in recent days threatens to reshape regional dynamics while exposing the limits of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) as a reliable pressure tool for Tehran. Before Israel attacked Iran in the early hours of Friday morning, the Houthis had positioned themselves as Israel’s most active threat. In response to Israeli retaliatory strikes in Yemen, the Houthis warned that no site in Israel would be completely safe, announcing that they are testing new missiles capable of causing greater damage to Israel, and going as far as urging diplomatic missions in Israel to evacuate and communicate with the “Yemeni Armed Forces” to ensure their safety. Domestically, the Houthis continue to claim victory in the Red… Continue reading Analysis May 9, 2025 07:27 MIN US Leaves Yemen Worse Than It Found It By Ned Whalley At a May 6 press conference with the Canadian prime minister, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with the Houthis (Ansar Allah). Trump said the group had agreed to end attacks on the US Navy and maritime shipping transiting the Red Sea in exchange for an immediate halt to US airstrikes in Yemen. Each side claimed the other had backed down. The Houthis quickly reserved the right to continue attacks on Israel, whose ongoing destruction of Gaza was the purported impetus for their attacks in the Red Sea. April was the deadliest month of airstrikes in Yemen since 2017 – the US has conducted over a thousand since mid-March - but Houthi power remains entrenched, its drone and missile… Continue reading Analysis May 9, 2025 08:58 MIN Why Did Trump Decide to Halt Operations in Yemen? By Hussam Radman Over the past few days, Yemen has witnessed a series of dramatic developments that could profoundly reshape the local and regional dynamics of the conflict. First, the Houthis succeeded in breaching Israeli air defenses with a ballistic missile attack targeting Ben Gurion Airport. Second, Israel launched a markedly more destructive response, striking economic infrastructure in Yemen and rendering both the port of Hudaydah and Sana’a Airport completely inoperable. Finally, US President Donald Trump announced a halt to US airstrikes in Yemen after the Houthis agreed to cease attacks against the US Navy and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. This rapid and stunning turn of events effectively signals that Washington has chosen to relinquish its role as a geopolitical stabilizer… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 21, 2025 04:08 MIN January-March 2025 Into the Quagmire: Navigating US Policy in Yemen By Alexandra Nikopoulou Since the inauguration of the new US administration, Washington has adopted a fiercer stance against the Houthis, the last resilient pillar of the pro-Iranian Axis of Resistance. The Houthis are the only Iranian ally that have had their power increase in the conflagration with Israel. Their attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea were viewed as a global threat to freedom of navigation, prompting a US military reaction in 2024 that has escalated after the return of Donald Trump as president. Washington perceives the Houthis as an extension of Iran and attacks against them as an easy way to push the Islamic Republic toward negotiations on its nuclear program. However, his assessment makes dangerous assumptions about the Iranian-Houthi relationship.… Continue reading Analysis April 21, 2025 08:27 MIN January-March 2025 Gulf Allies Could Prove Key in US Plans in Yemen By Elham A. Omar On March 15, US President Donald Trump ordered a series of “decisive and powerful” airstrikes targeting Yemen’s Houthis in response to the group’s attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea. The operation marks the most significant US military engagement in the Middle East since Trump retook office, with the stated aims of degrading Houthi capabilities and sending a clear message to their Iranian allies. Trump’s escalation has heightened tensions with Iran, risking a broader confrontation. Meanwhile, regional reactions to the strikes have been shaped by states’ interests, alliances, and the ripple effects of the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The UAE, which backs powerful military groups in southern Yemen, has a history of supporting a hawkish approach to… Continue reading Analysis April 21, 2025 05:45 MIN January-March 2025 Two Decades of Transformation: The Houthis’ Emergence from the Shadows By Salah Ali Salah When they first emerged from the “Believing Youth” movement in 2004, no one could have imagined the Houthis—a small group of local rebels fighting with traditional weapons— would evolve into a military and political force with influence extending across the regional and international landscape. But the Houthis’ development was not merely a matter of geographic expansion or enhanced military capabilities; it involved deeper transformations in its organizational structure, administrative systems, and political strategies. The growing disruption and threat posed by the Houthis recently prompted the administration of US President Trump to announce its first foreign military operation, and airstrikes against the group expanded dramatically in mid-March 2025. March is the same month in which a Saudi-led coalition launched Operation Decisive… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 21, 2025 04:32 MIN January-March 2025 What if Abdelmalek al-Houthi Were Killed? By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen As US airstrikes continue to target Houthi leaders in their strongholds, the prospect of Abdelmalek al-Houthi being eliminated raises important questions about the future of the group. This article first examines the significance of leadership within the Houthi group and the extent to which Abdelmalek al-Houthi influences it. It then challenges a narrative popular among some analysts that the Houthis are adept at leadership change, evidenced by the transition from Hussein al-Houthi to his brother, Abdelmalek, following Hussein’s death in 2004. To conclude, it presents scenarios likely to emerge if the US were to bring down the Houthi leader. In many ways, the Houthis adhere to traditional Zaidi principles. At the core of Zayidi tradition is the belief that leadership… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 21, 2025 06:12 MIN January-March 2025 Targeting the Houthi Leadership is Not a Game-Changer By Eleonora Ardemagni The US administration’s recent airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen mark a strategic shift, as Washington is now explicitly targeting the Houthi leadership in its efforts to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. While the assassination of Houthi leaders would no doubt be a blow to the group, it’s unclear whether the tactic would threaten its survival, as the group has displayed great adaptability during past domestic and regional crises. US President Donald Trump has emphasized that the attacks on Houthi-held areas of Yemen hit “terrorists’ bases, leaders, and missile defenses.” National Security Advisor Michael Waltz claimed that early rounds of strikes had “taken out key Houthi leadership, including their head missileer,” although without providing any evidence. The… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 21, 2025 11:09 MIN January-March 2025 Military and Security By William Clough The first weeks of 2025 offered hope that peace in Gaza could offer a reprieve in Yemen, as Houthi (Ansar Allah) leader Abdelmalek al-Houthi announced on January 16 that the group would suspend its attacks on commercial vessels, and a January 19 letter to shipping companies stated that any future strikes in the Red Sea would be limited to Israeli-linked vessels. The decision seemed, at first, a watershed moment (attacks have been ongoing since November 2023), but experts familiar with Yemen were quick to note that little had changed in practice. While the strategy ostensibly brought the Houthis back to Phase One of their five-tier escalation strategy, the group has a well-documented history of mistakenly firing on ships that were… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 21, 2025 12:31 MIN January-March 2025 Politics and Diplomacy — The Yemen Review, January-March 2025 By Casey Coombs The year-long Houthi (Ansar Allah) campaign of military attacks on Red Sea shipping came to a halt on January 19, following news of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. Houthi leader Abdelmalek al-Houthi announced a conditional suspension of the attacks on US- and UK-affiliated shipping as long as Western airstrikes in Yemen ceased. However, the group said Israeli-linked vessels would still be barred from Red Sea transit and threatened to resume attacks if the Gaza ceasefire deal was broken. Two days into the ceasefire, the Houthis released the crew of the Galaxy Leader, a cargo ship the group had hijacked in November 2023. Houthi officials said the move came at the request of Hamas and Omani mediators. Despite the Houthi pause… Continue reading Analysis April 18, 2025 03:39 MIN Strategic Hedging: Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman’s Visit to Tehran By Hussam Radman All eyes were on the Iranian capital, Tehran, where Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman arrived on April 17. His visit, during which he was accompanied by several other senior Saudi officials, including Mohammed al-Jaber, the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen, is the most significant development in Saudi-Iranian relations since the China-brokered rapprochement between the two countries in 2023. Prince Khalid’s trip signals a qualitative shift in Saudi Arabia’s approach to its regional relationships, particularly with its long-time rival, Iran. On a historical level, the symbolism of the visit is unmistakable. Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, only one Saudi defense minister has visited Iran—Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz in 1999. That visit produced two major outcomes: an unprecedented visit by… Continue reading Editorial April 17, 2025 03:51 MIN January-March 2025 Yemen’s Fragile Stalemate is Starting to Crack The war in Yemen has entered a new, uncertain phase. Over seven years of fighting came to a relative halt in 2022 with a UN-backed truce that cemented the stalemate on the ground. Subsequent Saudi-Houthi talks to normalize ties and launch a Yemeni-Yemeni peace process were upended by the Houthis’ response to the Gaza war, as the group began launching drone and missile attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea. Now, US President Donald Trump has returned to office guns blazing, relaunching the Biden administration’s anti-Houthi military campaign with a gusto that has raised the hopes of some parties that the rebel group could be brought to its knees. But even if Houthi power survives intact, the consequences… Continue reading