Iran

Analysis January 12, 2024 08:04 MIN US and UK Strike Houthi Targets in Yemen: Reaction from Sana’a Center Experts By Abdulghani Al-Iryani, Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, Hussam Radman, Maged Al-Madhaji, and Bilqees Al-Lahbi The United States and Britain carried out air and missile strikes against Houthi targets in the early hours of January 12, following two months of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The maritime attacks caused major shippers to reroute, disrupting international commerce and threatening a new round of global inflation. The airstrikes appear to have struck targets in Sana’a, Sa’ada, Hajjah, Hudayadh, and Taiz governorates. Houthi authorities said five people were killed and six wounded, and vowed to continue Red Sea operations as long as Israel’s war on Gaza continues. The United States has accused Iran of providing the military capabilities and intelligence behind the Houthi attacks. The US-UK action was supported militarily by Australia, Bahrain, Canada,… Continue reading Yemen Review section December 27, 2023 13:34 MIN November and December 2023 Red Sea Attacks Provoke International Response The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) has thrust Yemen into the international limelight and put regional politics in turmoil with an escalating series of high-profile attacks on Red Sea shipping. The Houthis have launched dozens of drones and missiles at ships since October and captured the commercial ship Galaxy Leader in a striking airborne commando raid (see Military section). Declaring solidarity with the besieged Palestinian inhabitants of Gaza, the Houthi leadership has now threatened to attack any ships heading to Israel until the Israeli military offensive ceases. Major shipping lines and oil companies are now diverting their vessels round the Cape of Good Hope, as the West and regional powers consider their response. The Houthis first fired on ships soon after… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 23, 2023 11:05 MIN September and October 2023 Bios: The Houthi Delegates to Riyadh By Adnan al-Jabarni A Houthi delegation flew to Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, on September 14 for the latest round of negotiations to end nine years of war in Yemen. A year after the United Nations officially brokered a truce in April 2022, talks have slowly shifted from backchannels to direct public meetings. The high visibility of their first-ever confirmed visit to Saudi Arabia reveals new information about the insular Houthi group (Ansar Allah). Moreover, a comparison of the latest Houthi delegation to the members who participated in consultations from 2018 through 2022 shows the extent of the group’s transformation. Overall, diversity has declined. In previous years, the Houthis included representatives from the General People’s Congress (GPC) and other independent political parties that the… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 20, 2023 16:47 MIN September and October 2023 Houthis Visit Riyadh as Bilateral Talks Move Forward A Houthi delegation arrived in Riyadh for discussions with Omani and Saudi officials on September 14, the first time Houthi representatives have publicly visited the Saudi capital since the war in Yemen began. The bilateral talks now appear to be moving rapidly toward the announcement of an agreement. The Houthi delegation met with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, and talks took place over five days before Houthi officials announced their conclusion and returned to Sana’a. The Saudi government said it is preparing a roadmap to securing peace in Yemen, and head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council Mahdi al-Mashat indicated the group was “pleased” with the discussions. On September 20, officials in Riyadh praised the “positive results” of the… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 20, 2023 03:29 MIN September and October 2023 The Zaidi Taliban State: Only a Matter of Time By Abdulghani Al-Iryani Since their takeover, the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) has been cautiously but consistently recasting Yemeni society and its political system in their own image. This has involved a crackdown on freedom of expression and assembly, a massive campaign of youth radicalization under the slogan of defending the homeland against “Saudi-Zionist-American aggression,” and restrictions on women’s right to work and travel. The tempo of that campaign accelerated as direct Saudi-Houthi talks began nearly two years ago. We probably will never know whether it was Saudi genius or mere coincidence, but the unconditional concessions Riyadh gave the Houthis created a false sense of victory within the group, strengthening the hand of its most radical members. This appears to have set the Houthis… Continue reading Analysis October 13, 2023 18:39 MIN Al-Qaeda’s Shifting Alliances During the Yemen War By Abu Bakr Ahmed During the fighting in Shabwa last year and more recently in Abyan, forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) locked horns with Islah-affiliated government forces. Both sides accused the other of links to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Such claims have been a feature of the war since 2015, but are usually more rhetorical than real, lacking evidence on the ground. Over the last year, however, AQAP has been more publicly sympathetic to the Islamist Islah party than is normal in its often guarded comments. In a speech in August 2022 by Abu Ali al-Hadrami, a top-tier leader who rarely appears in media, the group expressed frustration that the STC-backed Shabwa Defense forces and UAE-backed Giants Brigades forces… Continue reading Analysis September 18, 2023 14:38 MIN Houthis Make Official Visit to Riyadh for Talks with Saudi Arabia By Maged Al-Madhaji, Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, Hussam Radman, Abdulghani Al-Iryani, and Thomas Juneau A senior Houthi delegation arrived in Riyadh on September 14, the first such trip since the outset of the conflict. Bilateral Saudi-Houthi talks began in earnest after a failure to extend a UN-backed truce last year and accelerated after a Beijing-brokered détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the spring. Talks appeared to stall over the summer, but the visit suggests progress on a deal could be shortly forthcoming. The precise details of the negotiations have not been made public. The Saudis are looking to wind down their involvement in the war, fueling concerns that they will abandon the internationally recognized government and ignore the concerns and priorities of other Yemeni parties in their haste to leave, leading to further… Continue reading Yemen Review section September 14, 2023 22:18 MIN August 2023 UN, US Continue Shuttle Diplomacy The UN-led peace process has remained stalled since a formal truce expired without extension last October, and has since been superseded by direct bilateral talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). Nevertheless, the UN and US special envoys have continued to actively consult with the respective belligerents. On August 9, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg met with PLC chief Rashad al-Alimi in Riyadh along with other members of the PLC. In separate meetings, Grundberg spoke with Prime Minister Maeen Abdelmalek Saeed, Foreign Minister Ahmed bin Mubarak, and Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed al-Jaber. Discussions revolved around improving living conditions in Yemen, the political peace process, and increasing regional support. On August 15, Grundberg traveled to… Continue reading Main Publications September 4, 2023 20:50 MIN Absent from the Negotiation Table and Shunned from Public Life: Yemeni Women at a Crossroads By Rim Mugahed Across the globe, women share the burden of being largely excluded from decision-making bodies, but few are feeling it as acutely as Yemeni women. An almost decade-long war, coupled with a feminist, civil, and democratic experience that is yet unripe, and a strong patriarchal social system, have made it exceptionally hard for women to engage in public life. These factors, among others, have led Yemen to fall at the bottom of the list of countries with the worst gender gap indexes in the world, as reflected in the complete absence of women from parliament, government, and the ongoing peace negotiations. Nationwide, women are being denied the right to determine their own destiny, while their perspectives and priorities for peace remain… Continue reading Yemen Review section August 15, 2023 09:08 MIN June and July 2023 Tribal Tension and Mobilization in Al-Jawf The latter part of June and early July saw increased tensions in the region straddling the Al-Jawf-Marib border, as Houthi forces began clashing with tribal fighters in an attempt to fortify the area. Following clashes with pro-government forces on June 11 on fronts in eastern Al-Hazm district in the areas of Al-Rayyan, Al-Shahla, Al-Nusoud, and Al-Jadafer, large groups of Houthi fighters traveled to new camps in the nearby Bir Al-Marazeeq area on June 17, according to the pro-government director of security in Al-Jawf, pro-government military and security forces, and a local tribal sheikh. More reinforcements arrived to the nearby Al-Jadafer area on June 20. On the same day, a Houthi sniper killed one of the most prominent fighters from the… Continue reading Yemen Review section May 15, 2023 11:20 MIN April 2023 Saudi-Houthi Talks Stall April began with a flurry of activity in the ongoing bilateral talks between Riyadh and the armed Houthi movement, including a highly publicized visit by a Saudi-Omani delegation to Sana’a. But the month concluded without a signed agreement and uncertainty over the provisions of a deal. Saudi Arabia appears keen to conclude its disastrous military intervention in Yemen and is attempting to reposition itself as mediator rather than a primary party to the conflict. The Saudis hope to strike an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire soon, but numerous contentious issues remain unresolved, including the very ones which derailed last year’s truce negotiations. The talks continue, but appear to be in a holding pattern. At the outset of the month, Riyadh… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 14, 2023 02:54 MIN March 2023 Mending the Saudi-Iranian Rift: A Prelude for a Chinese Role in Yemen? By Elham A. Omar The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic ties on March 10 was surprising to many, but not entirely unexpected. Important signposts, including rounds of Saudi-Iranian talks in Iraq and Oman since 2021, and a Saudi desire to disengage from the war in Yemen, pointed to an engagement with Iran at some point. The wildcard, however, was the role of China as broker, as it demonstrated Beijing’s willingness to further its direct involvement in Gulf politics. Could this foreshadow an increased diplomatic role for China in Yemen? China has a long history of relations with Yemen, beginning in 1956, when the Mutawakelite Kingdom of Yemen became the first country in the Arabian Peninsula to recognize the People’s Republic… Continue reading