Analysis

Analysis July 11, 2020 21:09 MIN Yemen Economic Bulletin: Another Stage-Managed Fuel Crisis By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi The images are familiar by now: Yemenis in Houthi-controlled territory queue at fuel stations, amid announced shortages. Meanwhile, fuel tankers build up in the Coalition Holding Area (CHA), located in international waters in the Red Sea offshore of Jizan, Saudi Arabia. The number of ships awaiting approval from the government and the Saudi-led coalition to proceed to Houthi-controlled Hudaydah port reaches the proportions of a small flotilla. Combined, these images would seem to tell a simple and compelling story: the Saudi-led coalition and Yemeni government are preventing fuel from entering Hudaydah to spite the Houthis, and ordinary Yemenis are paying the cost. Yet the reality is much murkier. The truth is that the government and the Houthis are both guilty… Continue reading Analysis July 9, 2020 08:17 MIN The Riyadh Agreement Dilemma By Abdulghani Al-Iryani A key obstacle to nationwide peace negotiations is the formation of a Yemeni government delegation that includes the Southern Transitional Council (STC). This was meant to be a key outcome of the Saudi-brokered Riyadh Agreement the two rival parties acceded to last year. As it stands, however, successful implementation of the Riyadh Agreement requires redeploying forces loyal to Yemeni President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi in Aden, his government’s interim capital, risking renewed bloody confrontations with STC-affiliated forces that would wreck the peace negotiations. This is the dilemma of the Riyadh Agreement. On November 5, 2019, the Internationally Recognized Government of Yemen (IRG) and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) signed an agreement in Riyadh to end their military confrontations. These had… Continue reading Analysis June 17, 2020 08:54 MIN Yemen Economic Bulletin: STC’s Aden Takeover Cripples Central Bank and Fragments Public Finances By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi On 25 April, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared emergency self-rule across all southern Yemen in a direct challenge to the authority of the internationally recognized Yemeni government. This assertion of influence was quickly shown to be overly ambitious, with various southern governors rejecting the STC declaration and Yemeni government forces fighting back. The military and security situation in the south thus fractured, with the STC and affiliated forces in the west, government forces to the east, and the two clashing in Abyan governorate in the middle. Importantly, the STC solidified control over Aden – which had been both the interim capital and financial hub of the Yemeni government – and brought key public institutions under its control. The fourth… Continue reading Analysis June 16, 2020 10:30 MIN The Houthis: From the Sa’ada Wars to the Saudi-led Intervention By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen In February 2010, former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh casually declared in a speech that the Sa’ada Wars were over. Six rounds of fighting between the Yemeni army and Houthi movement since 2004 did not end with any political agreement. The Sa’ada Wars had left the government and army fractured and divided politically, as a power struggle emerged between Ahmad Ali Saleh, the son of the president, and Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, the country’s top military commander and President Saleh’s old partner in power. Years of war, meanwhile, served to strengthen the Houthis militarily, and after Saleh declared an end of the conflict, the Houthi insurgency was left to control Sa’ada governorate, the birthplace and stronghold of the movement. From its… Continue reading Analysis June 5, 2020 04:36 MIN Serious Risks in Saudi Options for Leaving Yemen  By Abdulghani Al-Iryani Saudi Arabia is politically and financially exhausted after five years of conflict against the Houthis. Tired of the 200 million Saudi riyal per day cost of the war, Riyadh offered a unilateral cease-fire April 8 and then extended it two weeks later, part of its attempt to pivot to a negotiated solution after continued territorial losses. Timed with the growing COVID-19 crisis, the recent Saudi cease-fires provided face-saving moral high ground to step back militarily and invited the Houthis to follow. The Houthis, however, were not biting; they ignored the cease-fires and responded with their own peace terms that would amount to a Saudi surrender. Given Houthi intransigence and Riyadh’s increasing desperation over the deadlock, the Saudis appear to be… Continue reading Analysis June 4, 2020 06:57 MIN Al-Bayda Governorate: Too Strategic to be Forgotten By Maged Al-Madhaji Al-Bayda is often forgotten. It is a vast area of Yemen where little is visible other than poverty and powerlessness, which have worsened during the war. It generally receives little attention among Yemen observers and monitors, except when it comes to Al-Qaeda. Recently, however, Al-Bayda has emerged as a central arena in the battle between the Houthi movement and its opponents. Al-Bayda borders eight other governorates: Shabwa, Al-Dhalea, Abyan and Lahj to the south, and Marib, Sana’a, Dhamar and Ibb to the north. Its strategic location, providing access to many areas of the country, makes Al-Bayda decisive to the current conflict between the Houthis and the government. The Houthis, thanks to their military strength, secured control of the governorate in… Continue reading Analysis May 22, 2020 07:07 MIN Abyan Battles to Determine Fate of the Riyadh Agreement By Hussam Radman On May 11, forces loyal to President Hadi launched a massive military attack against Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces in Yemen’s southern governorate of Abyan. The pro-government forces are attempting to seize Zinjibar, the governorate’s capital, which would put them in position to advance toward the interim capital, Aden. The renewed fighting came as part of the government’s effort to change the military equation in the South and improve its negotiating position related to the Riyadh Agreement. Struck in November 2019, the deal halted fighting between the government and STC forces, but implementation of power-sharing political and security arrangements has faltered. The clashes also followed the STC’s decision to declare self-rule across southern Yemen, which had little practical impact beyond… Continue reading Analysis May 22, 2020 04:52 MIN Houthi Coronavirus Coverup Unleashes Death, Suffering as Yemen Marks Eid By Osamah Al Rawhani The COVID-19 virus is rapidly spreading in northern Yemen and the response of Houthi authorities – to publicly deny this reality and silence those who contradict them – has ensured vastly more Yemenis will needlessly suffer and die in the months to come. In the last week of Ramadan, there has been an escalating sense in the Yemeni capital that the pandemic is spiraling out of control. On the street and in social media, almost everyone seems to know someone who either has the virus or has died from it – though most can only guess based on known symptoms, given the scarcity of testing and the Houthis’ suppression of test results. The United Nations now considers there to be… Continue reading Analysis May 8, 2020 13:23 MIN Yemen Economic Bulletin: Lebanon’s Financial Collapse Traps Yemeni Banks’ Money By Ryan Bailey, and Anthony Biswell In January 2020, demonstrators heckled a delegation of bankers leaving Lebanon’s central bank. This was not an uncommon occurrence – protests targeting the country’s political and financial elite had been ongoing for months. What was unique in this situation, however, was the identity of the banking delegation. These bankers were not Lebanese but Yemeni – not that the demonstrators were aware of this fact – and they had come to Beirut to inquire about hundreds of millions of US dollars worth of deposits stuck in Lebanese banks. During the ongoing conflict in Yemen, Lebanon emerged a vital clearinghouse to finance imports into the war-torn country. However, as Lebanon experiences its own slow-motion financial collapse today, the Yemeni economy, already in… Continue reading Analysis May 7, 2020 04:21 MIN Yemen Urgently Needs a Unified Fiscal Policy Response to COVID-19 In separately defined containment measures, authorities in Sana’a and Aden closed sea, land and air ports as a precaution prior to the April 10 official reporting of Yemen’s first confirmed case of COVID-19. Since then, they have — separately — suspended school and university classes, set up quarantines and imposed social distancing measures. As the virus spreads, however, separate responses will fall far short in blunting the human and economic catastrophe widely expected in a country entering its sixth year of war with a failing health system and more than 80 percent of its 30 million people already relying on humanitarian assistance. The pandemic may require a lockdown, as has happened elsewhere, placing severe restrictions on people's movement and posing… Continue reading Analysis May 6, 2020 04:39 MIN Can Kuwaiti Mediation and Omani Facilitation Support Ending Yemen’s War? By Kristian Coates Ulrichsen On April 9, the unilateral announcement of a two-week cease-fire by the Saudi-led coalition raised hopes that a window of opportunity might open to bring an end to its troubled five-year military intervention in Yemen. The fact that the Houthis were not consulted before the cease-fire was declared, and that the Saudis, Emiratis and Yemeni government of President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi lack consensus on the next steps means that attempts to broker a political settlement will be complicated and may yet falter. Although fighting in parts of Yemen continued despite the cease-fire, the prospect of a pause in the conflict is an opportune moment to examine the roles of Kuwait and Oman in deescalation, dialogue, trust-building and diplomacy. Kuwait… Continue reading Analysis May 4, 2020 08:04 MIN The South Rises Again By Hussam Radman Five years of civil strife in southern Yemen has given rise to southern centers of power, some oriented toward secession and others seeking the semi-autonomy of a federal system. Their views and causes were contained, however, until the dynamics of the current war increased southern autonomy, ultimately encouraging some southern political elites – gauging their chances of governing sufficiently strong – to declare self-rule. The roots of the southern cause go back to 1994, four years after the unification of North and South Yemen formed the Republic of Yemen. An attempt by southern parties to secede was violently put down during weeks of fighting, and the south would generally be subjected to neglect and marginalization from ruling authorities in Sana’a… Continue reading