Analysis

Analysis October 6, 2020 14:21 MIN Addressing the Southern Issue to Strengthen Yemen’s Peace Process By Hussam Radman A year after his appointment as the UN’s special envoy to Yemen, Martin Griffiths opened a branch for his office in the interim capital, Aden, where he met a wide spectrum of southern actors. But, until now, he has not significantly invested his office politically in what is known as the southern issue, instead focusing on efforts to reach a round of comprehensive political negotiations between the internationally recognized government of Yemen and the armed Houthi movement to consolidate a cease-fire throughout the country. However, the Riyadh Agreement reached in 2019 has helped create an opportune moment to support and transform a political agreement that deescalates hostilities and tension in southern governorates into a more sustainable and comprehensive arrangement. The… Continue reading Analysis October 6, 2020 24:00 MIN Yemen Economic Bulletin: Tax and Rule – Houthis Move to Institutionalize Hashemite Elite with ‘One-Fifth’ Levy By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi On April 29, Houthi authorities in Sana’a formally enacted new regulations on the collection and use of zakat, the Islamic obligation for individuals to donate a portion of their wealth each year to charitable causes. The executive bylaw, signed by Mehdi al-Mashat, president of the Houthi-run Supreme Political Council (SPC), imposes a khums tax (literally meaning “one-fifth”, or 20 percent) on economic activities involving natural resources in areas under the group’s control in Yemen, which includes most of northern Yemen where some 70 percent of the population lives. Houthi authorities characterized the new regulations as an expansion of Yemen’s 1999 zakat law. Based on the new interpretation, revenues from the khums tax would predominantly benefit the Ahl al-Bayt, meaning those… Continue reading Analysis October 5, 2020 07:59 MIN Marib’s Tribes Hold the Line Against the Houthi Assault By Maged Al-Madhaji The future of the war in Yemen will be determined in Marib. The Yemeni government’s control over the governorate, one of its last major centers of power in the country, is being severely challenged as Houthi forces seek to extend their control over all of northern Yemen and seize control of Marib’s oil and gas resources. A desperate defense by local tribes, government forces and the Saudi-led coalition has so far managed to prevent the Houthis from marching on the governorate’s capital, Marib city, and the oil fields farther to the east. In recent weeks, the battle for Marib has turned into a war of attrition, with the Houthis throwing more and more fighters against multiple fronts. For its defense… Continue reading Analysis September 17, 2020 04:50 MIN The Iran Variable in the UAE’s Yemen Policy By Thomas Juneau The growing foreign policy assertiveness of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has attracted much attention in recent years. The small oil-rich federation has deployed its forces throughout the region, most visibly in Yemen and Libya; thrown its diplomatic weight around, notably by supporting Abdelfattah al-Sisi in Egypt and leading the charge in blockading Qatar; positioned itself as one of the United States’ most trusted counter-terrorism partners; and, perhaps most strikingly, made headlines recently by becoming the third Arab state to normalize relations with Israel. Media commentary often attributes the UAE’s expansionist foreign policy in large part to its fear of Iran. Its rapprochement with Israel, in particular, has frequently been linked to its desire to build a common regional front… Continue reading Analysis September 9, 2020 04:30 MIN Yemen Economic Bulletin: Widening Exchange Rate Disparity Between New and Old Banknotes By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi Exchange rate divergence between Sana’a and Aden reached a record high by the end of August, with a Yemeni rial worth 33 percent less in Aden than in Sana’a. The rial was trading at YR805 per US$1 in the Aden parallel exchange market, compared to YR605 per US$1 in Sana’a. The difference in value of the rial between government- and Houthi-controlled areas is a consequence of the split in the Central Bank of Yemen (CBY) into rival institutions in Sana’a and Aden affiliated with the warring parties, leading to fractured monetary policy. The divergence started to widen following the Houthi authorities’ decision in December 2019 to ban the use in areas they control of newer rial banknotes issued by CBY-Aden.… Continue reading Analysis September 9, 2020 05:54 MIN The Yemeni Government’s Triangle of Power The internationally recognized Yemeni government’s continued relevance on the ground, even after losing its interim capital of Aden last year, is largely due to its hold on the country’s oil and gas producing regions. These form what could be called the government’s triangle of power, drawn between the cities of Marib, Ataq and Sayoun in the governorates of Marib, Shabwa and Hadramawt, respectively, which account for all of Yemen’s oil and natural gas production. Control of Yemen’s oil and gas fields represents an immense strategic resource, both for their current revenues and future potential as hydrocarbon exports continue to recover. Marib, Shabwa and Hadramawt, while rich in natural resources are also relatively sparsely populated, while the inverse dynamic is at… Continue reading Analysis September 8, 2020 04:35 MIN The United States in a World Without Friends By Gregory D. Johnsen Over the past three-and-a-half years, the United States – under President Donald Trump – has extorted partners, belittled allies, and mocked international institutions. Not surprisingly, this sort of ‘America First, America Only’ approach to the world of international diplomacy has had serious and severe consequences. The United States, it turns out, cannot thumb its nose at one-time friends whenever it suits the president and then expect them to fall in line when asked. If the aspirational ideology of US foreign policy in the 20th century was “speak softly and carry a big stick,” the reality of the Trump administration has been “mock endlessly and tweet in all caps.” That approach may win a domestic election (though hopefully not two), but… Continue reading Analysis September 3, 2020 18:18 MIN Yemenis in Saudi Arabia: Less Money to Send Home, More Pressure to Leave By Ali Al-Dailami Working 15-hour days, foregoing internet service and shaving bald rather than visiting a barber long have helped a Yemeni fabric salesman in Saudi Arabia stretch his SR2,500 (US$666) paycheck to cover his expenses and send nearly half of it to his family back home each month, keeping them secure enough for his children to focus on the school and university studies he funds. It hasn’t been easy. Once, he hid in a roll of fabric when police swept through during a crackdown on foreign workers—his residency permit was expiring soon and he wasn’t yet ready with the nearly SR11,000 ($2,930) required to renew it. More recently, however, the situation has seemed even bleaker: The store he worked… Continue reading Analysis August 17, 2020 14:17 MIN The Yemen Crisis: A Chronology of Failures Editor’s note: Dr. Abu Bakr Al-Qirbi served as Yemen’s foreign minister from 2001-2014, beginning in the aftermath of the October 2000 USS Cole bombing in Aden’s port, which shaped Yemen’s diplomatic agenda for more than a decade. Dr. Al-Qirbi, a member of the General People’s Congress (GPC) party founded by the late President Ali Abdullah Saleh, was involved in negotiating Saleh’s 2012 departure from office, then continued to lead the Foreign Ministry under the interim government of President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi until being replaced in 2014. He was also a member of the 2013-2014 National Dialogue Conference in the state-building working group. While he did not serve in an official role in the Houthi-GPC “Government of National Salvation,” he… Continue reading Analysis August 14, 2020 05:53 MIN The Decline of Tihama Date Production and Yemen’s Agricultural Collapse By Wim Zwijnenburg Yemen’s fertile wadis that flow down from the mountainous areas on the west coast have been an essential lifeline for a population that has relied on its water for agricultural production for millennia. Farmers on the Tihama plains, which run along the Red Sea coast of the Arabian Peninsula, grow many types of vegetables and fruits as well as cereals such as sorghum, and keep livestock along the rivers that are used for irrigation. Among the distinctive trees grown in this area of Hudaydah governorate – as well as the governorate of Hadramawt – are date palms. From 2008 to 2012, Yemen harvested roughly 57 metric tons of dates from more than 4 million date palms, making it a strategic… Continue reading Analysis July 16, 2020 06:58 MIN The UNSC: From Participant to Passive Observer in Yemen The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has been the gatekeeper for UN efforts in Yemen for almost a decade. With a tortuous process where progress seems to come and go, some diplomats from member states of the UNSC have privately expressed disappointment that the Council is always “reacting” rather than “acting” when it comes to Yemen. The Security Council’s ability to be effective has been called into question by diplomats and analysts. As the past six years show, the UNSC has taken the backseat in Yemen, worried that tangible action would interfere with the UN Special Envoy’s efforts to broker a peace accord, and negatively impact the UN’s humanitarian offices working on the ground in Yemen. The UN Security Council’s… Continue reading Analysis July 14, 2020 10:09 MIN Yemen Environment Bulletin: How Weak Urban Planning, Climate Change and War are Magnifying Floods and Natural Disasters By Yasmeen al-Eryani This year, Yemen experienced a series of weather shocks as flash floods swept through 15 governorates across Yemen between March 24 and June 6, affecting some areas multiple times. Considering that 80 percent of the Yemeni population is in need of some form of humanitarian assistance and more than 3.6 million people are internally displaced, while public services and infrastructure have been laid bare during five long years of war, swathes of Yemen’s population are vulnerable to the immediate and long-term impact of these floods. This comes in the midst of a global pandemic, a continuing war and cuts in international aid to Yemen. The long-term impact of floods and natural disasters on the various sectors and overall GDP in… Continue reading