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Main Publications December 19, 2023 32:42 MIN Challenges to Yemen’s Public Revenues By Ned Whalley, and Wadhah Al-Awlaqi Since April 2022, the war in Yemen has mutated from a high-casualty conflict to a protracted stalemate with relatively stable frontlines. The contest is now over the economy, as the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) leverages negotiations and its military power to put fiscal pressure on the internationally recognized government. The current phase has been marked by the expansion of economic warfare, with the Houthi authorities shutting down trade from government-controlled areas, stoking discontent as public utilities break down and the currency tumbles. The Houthi attack on government revenue streams began last fall with a blockade of oil exports and has expanded into competition for customs revenues and a ban on cooking gas produced in government-held areas. The precipitous decline in… Continue reading Editorial November 20, 2023 03:36 MIN September and October 2023 Blackouts and Blackholes: Yemen’s Vanishing Electricity Supply One of the most visceral signs of state collapse in Yemen isn’t frontline fighting or food insecurity – it’s the inability of the internationally recognized government to provide electricity. For several years now, the approach of summer has meant bracing for extended blackouts in many parts of the country. With the intense heat and humidity, life becomes almost unbearable for millions of people, and puts the sick and elderly at risk of death. Even as of late October, residents of Aden were getting only two hours of electricity a day due to a shortage of fuel for power plants. By contrast, although Yemenis living in Houthi-run territories are subject to many deprivations, a lack of electricity is not one of… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 20, 2023 16:47 MIN September and October 2023 Houthis Visit Riyadh as Bilateral Talks Move Forward A Houthi delegation arrived in Riyadh for discussions with Omani and Saudi officials on September 14, the first time Houthi representatives have publicly visited the Saudi capital since the war in Yemen began. The bilateral talks now appear to be moving rapidly toward the announcement of an agreement. The Houthi delegation met with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, and talks took place over five days before Houthi officials announced their conclusion and returned to Sana’a. The Saudi government said it is preparing a roadmap to securing peace in Yemen, and head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council Mahdi al-Mashat indicated the group was “pleased” with the discussions. On September 20, officials in Riyadh praised the “positive results” of the… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 20, 2023 07:40 MIN September and October 2023 Houthi Missiles and Drones Target Israel The outbreak of conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza on October 7 galvanized Houthi forces, who have used their strategic position on the Red Sea to threaten Israeli and US forces in the region – or at least give their supporters the impression that they are doing so. This culminated on October 31, when Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea gave a televised speech claiming three missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea, threatening to continue attacks as long as the Israeli campaign in Gaza continued. A flurry of Houthi military activity took place in the weeks preceding the missile launches, suggesting that Houthi forces have militarized large swaths of the Hudaydah coastline and Red Sea islands, giving them… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 20, 2023 19:29 MIN September and October 2023 Prime Minister Denies Allegations of Government Corruption By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi Prime Minister Maeen Abdelmalek Saaed denied allegations of corruption against his government made in a parliamentary report during a press conference on September 4. The alleged violations include mismanagement and corruption amounting to YR2.8 trillion (approximately US$1.9 billion) across the electricity, energy, telecommunications, and financial sectors. Saaed attacked the report of a parliament fact-finding committee, calling the accusations malicious and backed by influential individuals whose personal interests have suffered. He alleged that certain partisan individuals have attempted to obstruct the work of the government, and said that it has formed a committee headed by the minister of justice to respond to allegations outlined in the report. The prime minister defended his government’s performance, noting that it has continued to pay… Continue reading Analysis November 20, 2023 15:26 MIN September and October 2023 The Black Waters of Total By Quentin Müller A strange curse seems to be hanging over Sah district. Cultivable plots, once lush with crops, pastures, limes, watermelons, and onions, have been abandoned. Blackened at the base, twisted and staggering, the trail of date palms stands out in the desolate landscape. On his doorstep sits 36-year-old Mohammed Ali Salem Sourour, listening to the song of the birds, which are increasingly rare in this region. In the darkness of the house, a small child hesitates to step into the light. His 6-year-old son Adam finally reveals a startling birth defect. One eye, larger than the other, seemed to have detached from his left eyebrow, dropping a few centimeters below. “We live in the most poisoned land in Yemen,” says Mohammed,… Continue reading Analysis November 20, 2023 03:11 MIN September and October 2023 The Poisonous Egos in Yemen’s Tragedy By Farea Al-Muslimi The arrival of a Houthi delegation in Riyadh on September 14 represents a breakthrough after nine bitter years of war. The bilateral negotiations with Saudi Prince Khaled Bin Salman have been widely celebrated and encouraged, though there are myriad grounds for skepticism. But the moment is important as well as symbolic - it marks the dampening of the dangerous and destructive egotism that sparked and sustained Yemen’s tragic conflict. Nearly a decade of war, with hundreds of thousands of Yemenis killed, has undone years of progress and development, setting the country back at least a century. There are numerous reasons why the war began, not least the failed national dialogue process after the fall of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the… Continue reading Main Publications November 1, 2023 25:45 MIN Corruption in Hadramawt’s Electricity Sector By Ali Yahya Abdullah, Nabhan Abdullah bin Nabhan, and Casey Coombs Since the summer of 2019, protests have become a fixture across Hadramawt in reaction to the poor provision of electricity. Although the governorate is far from the frontlines and home to most of the country’s oil reserves, it has not escaped destabilizing aspects of the conflict, including the erosion of the rule of law and the emergence of war profiteering. In the face of growing electricity demand, Hadramawt’s local authority has commissioned the construction of new power plants and the repair of existing ones, and become increasingly reliant on electricity purchase agreements with private companies. However, the lack of transparency or oversight of these deals, in violation of the competitive bidding requirements of national tender regulations, benefits a select group… Continue reading Analysis October 13, 2023 18:39 MIN Al-Qaeda’s Shifting Alliances During the Yemen War By Abu Bakr Ahmed During the fighting in Shabwa last year and more recently in Abyan, forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) locked horns with Islah-affiliated government forces. Both sides accused the other of links to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Such claims have been a feature of the war since 2015, but are usually more rhetorical than real, lacking evidence on the ground. Over the last year, however, AQAP has been more publicly sympathetic to the Islamist Islah party than is normal in its often guarded comments. In a speech in August 2022 by Abu Ali al-Hadrami, a top-tier leader who rarely appears in media, the group expressed frustration that the STC-backed Shabwa Defense forces and UAE-backed Giants Brigades forces… Continue reading Yemen Review section September 14, 2023 22:18 MIN August 2023 UN, US Continue Shuttle Diplomacy The UN-led peace process has remained stalled since a formal truce expired without extension last October, and has since been superseded by direct bilateral talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). Nevertheless, the UN and US special envoys have continued to actively consult with the respective belligerents. On August 9, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg met with PLC chief Rashad al-Alimi in Riyadh along with other members of the PLC. In separate meetings, Grundberg spoke with Prime Minister Maeen Abdelmalek Saeed, Foreign Minister Ahmed bin Mubarak, and Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed al-Jaber. Discussions revolved around improving living conditions in Yemen, the political peace process, and increasing regional support. On August 15, Grundberg traveled to… Continue reading Main Publications August 24, 2023 36:53 MIN Recovering Lost Ground in Shabwa’s Oil Sector By Majd Ibrahim, and Casey Coombs Shabwa’s oil sector has developed in fits and starts. Its first commercially viable oil reserves were discovered in 1987 when the governorate was still part of South Yemen. In 1990, South Yemen united with North Yemen to form the Republic of Yemen, which enlisted foreign energy companies to help develop the nascent oil industry. This included the construction of a pipeline running from northern Shabwa to the governorate’s Arabian Sea coast, and over the next 15 years a growing number of foreign energy firms and state-owned companies tapped new oil fields and further expanded production. Shabwa’s annual oil output peaked in 2010 at more than 25 million barrels (about 70,000 barrels per day), before plummeting to about 8 million barrels… Continue reading Yemen Review section August 15, 2023 18:57 MIN June and July 2023 Saudi Arabia Announces US$1.2 Billion in New Financial Support Long-waited financial support for the government finally materialized after it reached a dire fiscal situation in June and July. On August 1, Saudi Arabia announced it would support the internationally recognized government with a US$1.2 billion grant to finance the public budget and prop up the value of the Yemeni rial. Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed al-Jaber stated that the first batch of new funds would be released for use on August 2. The next day, the Central Bank of Yemen in Aden (CBY-Aden) announced that Saudi Arabia had deposited 1 billion Saudi Riyals (nearly US$267 million) into its account. High-ranking government officials, including the CBY governor Ahmed Ghaleb and the Minister of Finance Salem bin Breik, said that funds… Continue reading