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Analysis March 2, 2023 19:29 MIN Bridging the Divide: Mitigating the Impacts of the CBY Schism on Yemen’s Banking Sector By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi The September 2016 rupture of the Central Bank of Yemen (CBY) into rival branches associated with the main warring parties has severely undermined the country’s banking sector. The most fundamental issues affecting Yemeni banks are the differing currency systems that have emerged between areas controlled by the internationally recognized government and Houthi authorities, and the associated competing centers of financial sector regulation, which have adopted increasingly coercive measures in their attempts to assert exclusive authority. The banking sector liquidity crisis, which emerged prior to the central bank schism, has only been compounded and complicated since. This policy brief was produced as part of the Yemen International Forum (YIF) 2022 and will offer an overview of the evolving challenges facing the… Continue reading Analysis February 28, 2023 34:17 MIN Leadership from Iran: How Al-Qaeda in Yemen Fell Under the Sway of Saif al-Adel By Hussam Radman, and Assim al-Sabri When Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed by a US drone strike in Afghanistan last July it had only limited impact for the group’s Middle East branches in North Africa, Yemen, and Somalia. This was in part a result of the internal cohesion created by organizational policies introduced since 2011 that gave regional branches significant autonomy. But it also spoke to Al-Zawahiri’s reduced importance as a leader in recent years as he took on more of a symbolic role as the successor to Osama bin Laden who had obtained the allegiance of Al-Qaeda’s central Shura council. One of the key reasons why leadership on all the key fronts – security, organizational, and financial – shifted away from Al-Zawahiri was the… Continue reading The Yemen Review February 20, 2023 27:56 MIN Yemen Annual Review 2022 By Sana’a Center Staff The past year has been one of extreme consequence for Yemen. The war has entered a new phase of low-level violence and economic warfare. Casualties are down since a truce was signed in April, and have remained relatively low even after its acrimonious expiration in October. The internationally recognized government has sworn in a new executive body, but it has been unable to bridge internal rifts or reverse the territorial and economic decline of recent years. The United Arab Emirates has fully re-engaged in Yemen through a variety of proxy groups, most importantly the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which holds sway across much of southern Yemen. Saudi Arabia is pursuing talks of its own with the Houthis, though its… Continue reading Analysis November 14, 2022 04:14 MIN October 2022 The Saudi Overture to the Houthis By Abdulghani Al-Iryani In the second week of October, the Saudi government made a bold proposal to the Houthis. They invited the nominal leader of the de facto authorities in Sana’a, Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Supreme Political Council and Supreme Commander of the armed forces, to visit Riyadh, meet Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, and discuss a peace deal. This was the breakthrough that the Houthis have been working for since they overthrew the internationally recognized government in 2014. Direct talks with the Saudis would confer a degree of international legitimacy to the Houthi government, but they also represent a recognition of the legitimacy that the Houthi authorities themselves have established in eight years of consolidating their rule over most of Yemen’s… Continue reading Analysis August 12, 2022 02:51 MIN July 2022 Al-Zawahiri’s Death and the End of Bin Laden’s Legacy By Hussam Radman Osama bin Laden had always admired his loyal soldiers in Yemen. In particular, he respected his secretary from the Afghan jihad years, whom he viewed as his spiritual successor, Nasser al-Wuhayshi. It was Al-Wuhayshi who took over the task of rebuilding Al-Qaeda in Yemen, before merging it with its Saudi branch to form Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Driven by an ambition to move the jihadist command center to Yemen, which he saw as an “Afghanistan with access to the sea,” Bin Laden prepared Al-Wuhayshi to be Al-Qaeda’s next leader. Convinced of his organizational abilities and charisma, Bin Laden granted Al-Wuhayshi exceptional powers, ordering other branches of Al-Qaeda to follow the example of Yemenis in adapting to their local… Continue reading Analysis April 7, 2022 03:29 MIN March 2022 US Assistance to Saudi-Led Coalition Risks Complicity in War Crimes By Afrah Nasser The protracted conflict in Yemen has killed almost a quarter of a million people directly or indirectly due to inadequate food, health care and infrastructure. It has included unlawful attack after unlawful attack, with homes, hospitals, schools and bridges among the civilian objects that the warring parties have targeted. Fighting has internally displaced more than 4 million people from their homes. Food insecurity is on the rise. The conflict that began in 2014 between the Houthi armed group and the government of President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi morphed in 2015 into a conflict between the Houthis and the US-backed coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Today the fighting includes nearly 50 other battle fronts. The… Continue reading Analysis March 27, 2022 17:34 MIN The Best of Intentions: How the Biden Administration Tried and Failed to End the War in Yemen By Gregory D. Johnsen The Biden administration took office on January 20, 2021, determined to end the war in Yemen. On the campaign trail, candidate Biden had promised not to “sell more weapons” to Saudi Arabia, explaining that Saudi airstrikes in Yemen were “murdering children” and “innocent people.” Biden referred to Saudi Arabia as a “pariah” and said that it needed “to be held accountable” for its actions in Yemen. Biden’s campaign pledge was designed to be a sharp break with the previous two administrations. Both the Obama administration – in which Biden served as vice president – and the Trump administration had, in one way or another, backed the Saudi-led coalition and its war in Yemen. But six years into a war that… Continue reading The Yemen Review March 3, 2022 279:55 MIN The Graveyard of Hubris – Yemen Annual Review 2021 Through most of 2021, the armed Houthi movement appeared unstoppable. As their forces pushed relentlessly toward Marib city, the fall of the last government stronghold in the north began to seem inevitable. Rich in oil and gas, its loss would be a mortal blow to the spiraling economy and political legitimacy of the internationally recognized government. Along frontlines across the country, Houthi forces either held their ground or advanced, showing a cohesiveness, discipline and effectiveness unmatched by the motley array of armed groups opposing them. Houthi drones and ballistic missiles flew across the border into Saudi Arabia, and continued even in the face of retaliatory airstrikes, heightening the cost of conflict for the coalition. Houthi military efforts were buttressed by… Continue reading Main Publications September 6, 2021 17:28 MIN Local Economic Councils: A Tool to Improve Business Productivity in Yemen Even before the events of 2014 and 2015 that led Yemen into the ongoing civil war, its economy was fragile. The years of hardship that have haunted the country ever since have been devastating. Yemen is now rated as one of the hardest places in the world for businesses to operate and is last or near last in a host of global business competitiveness indexes. From January 25-27,2021 the seventh Development Champions Forum, held virtually, focused on this dire national situation. To help address local economic challenges, the Development Champions discussed the possibility of establishing Local Economic Councils. According to their analysis, between the existing community-level local development committees (which guide targeted, small scale infrastructure investment from development funds such… Continue reading The Yemen Review July 14, 2021 94:51 MIN Eye on the East – The Yemen Review, June 2021 Through periods of tolerance and persecution, marginalization has remained a constant in the treatment of racial and religious minorities in Yemeni society. During the ongoing conflict, however, violence and subjugation against these marginalized groups has increased dramatically, to the point that it is fundamentally reshaping Yemeni society. For Yemen as we know it to continue to exist it needs to assure the existence of its minorities, as something fundamental to the makeup of a nation dies when its minorities perish. Yemen’s Jewish community, with a history tracing back millennia, played a foundational role in developing Yemeni culture and commerce, and creating much of the artisanal industries for which the country is known. While the community had already been dwindling in… Continue reading Analysis October 22, 2020 56:41 MIN Marib: A Yemeni Government Stronghold Increasingly Vulnerable to Houthi Advances By Casey Coombs, and Ali Al-Sakani Marib, a centrally-located governorate connecting Al-Bayda, Shabwa, Hadramawt, Al-Jawf and Sana’a, has undergone a drastic transformation since the war started in 2015, emerging as a booming economic, social, political and military center. Natural resources including irrigation from the Marib dam and oil and gas reserves were instrumental in building a bustling metropolis in Marib city over a short period. But it was the autonomy afforded by decentralization under Governor Sultan al-Aradah that harnessed those resources for local development. Obtaining its share of the national gas and oil revenues, for example, has helped fund the improvement of infrastructure, pay civil servants' salaries and build government institutions. Though hardly insulated from the war, Marib has become a haven for displaced people and… Continue reading The Yemen Review October 8, 2018 34:33 MIN The Yemen Review – September 2018 In September, the Yemeni rial’s recent decline accelerated precipitously, with the currency’s value dropping to record lows by month’s end. While the rial has been under multiple, intensifying pressures stemming from the war for several years, a large increase in the money supply – through a 30 percent increase in civil servant salaries – and the collapse of peace talks last month appear to have spurred a rial sell-off in the market (see ‘Domestic Currency Hits Record Low’). A nation-wide fuel shortage ensued. Retail fuel stations closed en masse and prices for available petrol on the black market jumped an average of 130 percent relative to August, and as much as 230 percent in some areas (see ‘Fuel Shortages and… Continue reading