Analysis

Analysis May 12, 2021 22:09 MIN Presidential Councils in Yemen: Exploring Past Attempts at Power Sharing and Possibilities for the Future By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen During the past six years of war, President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi has failed in administering the situation in Yemen on the military and political levels. For many Yemenis, Hadi, after spending much of the conflict in exile in Saudi Arabia, is viewed not as a legitimate president but as cover for the Saudi war in Yemen, given that the Saudi-led coalition regularly asserts that its intervention is entirely at the request of Hadi and the internationally recognized Yemeni government. This lack of legitimacy and authority has resulted in the proliferation of militia rule across Yemen – most notably the armed Houthi movement, but also groups supposedly allied with the Hadi government. Still, an argument persists that Hadi, despite his… Continue reading Analysis May 5, 2021 15:50 MIN Short on Trust, Weapons and Planning, Government Surge in Taiz Fails By Khaled Farouq Taiz has been a divided city since 2015, with Houthi forces (Ansar Allah) holding the northern suburbs of Yemen’s third-largest city as well as much of the northern part of the governorate. The Houthis control both Taiz’s industrial zone to the northeast of the city, gaining hundreds of millions of rials every year through taxes on factory owners, as well as the governorate’s three main roads. As a result, for the past six years residents of Taiz city have lived under siege. Houthi snipers are a constant presence, making some roads and alleyways impassable. Food and supplies into government-held portions of the city are forced to make the long journey up from Aden, entering Taiz through the sole government-held road,… Continue reading Analysis May 4, 2021 15:04 MIN Tribes and the State in Marib By Ahmed Al-Tars Al-Arami For most of Yemen’s modern history, the tribes of Marib have largely been perceived as hostile toward the state. This perception, however, has been turned on its head since the armed Houthi movement seized the capital Sana’a in 2014, after which the group set its eyes on neighboring Marib. In response, Marib’s tribes have emerged as the last line of defense against Houthi attempts to capture the strategic governorate from the internationally recognized government. Alongside the positive role the tribes have played in ensuring Marib’s stability, a noticeable change has emerged in tribal views toward the Yemeni state and its interests. Rather than viewing the state with suspicion and hostility, the tribes have become a critical force in maintaining whatever… Continue reading Analysis April 21, 2021 04:00 MIN The Saudi Blockade of Yemen Must be Lifted – But Not in Isolation By Thomas Juneau Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen recently passed its six-year mark. The war has become an unwinnable quagmire from which Riyadh struggles to find a viable exit strategy, while it has had devastating humanitarian consequences for Yemen. This has led to a growing chorus of calls for the US to cease its support for Saudi Arabia’s intervention and for Washington to pressure Riyadh into lifting the maritime and air blockade it has imposed on Yemen along with its coalition partners. The blockade does not deny the entry of all goods into Yemen; oil and food, in particular, do get imported through the port of Hudaydah on the west coast. The Saudi-led coalition does, however, enforce a long list of banned products.… Continue reading Analysis April 5, 2021 24:22 MIN Yemen’s Power-Sharing Cabinet: What’s At Stake? By Khaled Ameen Editor’s note: The author is a Yemeni political analyst with access to the internal dynamics of Yemen’s internationally recognized government. They are writing under a pseudonym in order to speak frankly and without reprisals. Editor's note: See Annex A for ministers' biographies and political affiliations Introduction On December 30, 2020, shortly after the arrival of a Yemenia flight carrying members of the newly-formed government to Aden airport, three missiles struck between the runway and the reception hall in less than a minute, killing at least 26 people and injuring more than 100 others. However, the missiles failed to achieve their goal: the elimination of the members of the newly-formed Yemeni government. The place and timing of the attack were significant.… Continue reading Analysis March 26, 2021 64:22 MIN The CBY-Aden’s Crisis of Confidence – Assessing the UN Panel of Experts’ Corruption Allegations By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi The United Nations Panel of Experts on Yemen recently accused the internationally recognized Yemeni government, its central bank and commercial food importers in the country of colluding to embezzle nearly half a billion dollars. The accusations were included in the panel’s annual report to the UN Security Council, published on January 25, which detailed a wide spectrum of findings related to political, military, security and economic developments in Yemen in 2020. In the report’s economic section, the Panel of Experts concluded that the two primary Yemeni belligerents in the country’s ongoing conflict – the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the armed Houthi movement – had both illicitly diverted the country’s economic and financial resources to serve their own ends, thereby… Continue reading Analysis March 19, 2021 13:18 MIN A View From the Ground: Will the Battle for Marib Determine Yemen’s Fate? By Maged Al-Madhaji The Road to Marib Fighting on the outskirts of the city of Marib escalated once again in February as Houthi forces launched a renewed offensive to seize the internationally-recognized government’s last stronghold in northern Yemen. I decided to go to Marib in March, to check in on the Sana’a Center team in the governorate and witness for myself what was happening in this critical battle. I called a friend in Marib and asked him to arrange for a car to pick me up at Seyoun airport, about 500 kilometers to the east in Hadramawt governorate. This was to avoid using transportation services provided by private companies, which have flourished during the conflict and are used by various parties to know… Continue reading Analysis March 19, 2021 07:08 MIN Marib and the Closing Bell of the Yemen War By Abdulghani Al-Iryani As fighting intensified in Marib during the month of February, along with signs of escalation on other fronts across the country, I am hopeful. The risk of an outright victory by the armed Houthi movement over everyone else, and over the chance of peace among equals that could keep Yemen in one piece, has finally triggered a series of events that could make peace possible. Let me explain this counterintuitive notion. For several years, I have been speaking about five obstacles to peace in Yemen. The first is the war economy. The collapse of the Yemeni state, and the extraordinary conditions of war, have made it possible for people in the right places to profit in ways they could never… Continue reading Analysis March 19, 2021 04:47 MIN Don’t Import the Libyan Model to Yemen By Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen In early February, the UN announced that 74 influential Libyan politicians and factional and tribal representatives gathered in Geneva had successfully negotiated the formation of an interim national government, which aims to hold national elections later this year. That fledgling success, coupled with the dire state of the war in Yemen – currently characterized by a Houthi offensive in Marib and a desperate humanitarian situation – may tempt some to believe a similar approach might work in Yemen. But that would be a mistake. Yemen is not Libya, and what worked in one country will not necessarily work in another. Save for the war in 2011 that overthrew Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi and the civil war that followed, Libya’s modern… Continue reading Analysis March 18, 2021 03:30 MIN Myth of Batarfi’s Arrest Plays into Weakened AQAP Narrative By Hussam Radman It’s the sort of embarrassing spectacle we’ve seen time and time again over the past 20 years. A terrorist leader is announced killed or captured, only to reappear days or weeks later, very much alive and free. This time it was the UN’s Al-Qaeda Monitoring Team that made the mistake. In a report dated February 3, 2021, the UN team claimed that Khaled Batarfi, the head of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), “was arrested during an operation in Ghaydah city, Al-Mahra governorate, in October [2020].” A few days later, AQAP released a video that showed Batarfi enjoying his freedom; to clearly date the video, Batarfi referenced the January 6 storming of the US Capitol. So, what happened? How did… Continue reading Analysis March 18, 2021 07:25 MIN The Panel of Experts Err on Yemen By Rafat Al-Akhali On January 22, 2021, the Panel of Experts (PoE) on Yemen issued its annual report to the United Nations Security Council. This year’s report summarizes the PoE’s views on the peace process as well as on the security, stability and economic situation in the country during 2020. The report leveled accusations of corruption, money laundering and elite capture against the internationally recognized government of Yemen, the Aden-based Central Bank of Yemen (CBY) and Yemeni food importers, relating to a US$2 billion deposit made by Saudi Arabia in 2018 to help finance the import of commodities and stabilize the Yemeni rial. Although the panel’s mandate is to report on acts that threaten the peace, security and stability of Yemen, the section… Continue reading Analysis March 17, 2021 04:48 MIN Washington’s Lack of Options in Marib By Charlotte Kamin Just days after the Biden administration reversed the Trump-era designation of the Houthi movement as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), the armed group renewed its military campaign to take over the strategic city of Marib. As the Yemeni national army backed by resistance fighters and local tribes fights to fend off the offensive, Saudi Arabia has carried out airstrikes and redeployed military hardware to repel the Houthi onslaught. President Biden and his new special envoy to Yemen, Timothy Lenderking, have condemned the Houthi attack on Marib, stressing the need for diplomatic solutions to bring the interminable Yemen conflict to an end. Strongly worded statements, however, are unlikely to change the reality on the ground. The US and international community cannot… Continue reading