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Analysis October 16, 2024 07:07 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 The Houthis’ Rise Amid the Gaza War and Red Sea Crisis: From Local Actor to Regional Force By Alexandra Nikopoulou Following the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) rapidly extended their support to the Palestinians, directly targeting Israel, along with Israeli and Western vessels in the Red Sea. This unprecedented crisis has bolstered the group’s regional status and resulted in the escalation of regional tensions and the emergence of a novel threat to global maritime security. Concurrently, it has provided the Houthis with added leverage at the negotiation table. The Houthis have essentially transitioned from being recognized solely as a local Yemeni actor to becoming a powerful regional player within the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Drawing on key insights from Sana’a Center experts, this analysis follows a three-level approach to examine the impact of the Houthis’ attacks… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 07:23 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Egypt Maneuvers in the Horn of Africa By Maher Abu al-Majd Since October 2023, the Middle East has witnessed a series of geopolitical developments, which Cairo has perceived as a direct threat to its national security. These include: 1) the Israeli war on Gaza; 2) Houthi escalation in the Red Sea and a subsequent decline in Suez Canal revenue; 3) Ethiopia's quest for a seaport and plans to establish a naval base on the coast of Somaliland; and 4) the crisis in Libya and the potential for renewed conflict. This rapid succession of events has shattered Egypt's longstanding pillars of foreign policy, which for four decades were built on the principles of good neighborliness, non-intervention, and investing in mediation and diplomacy. In response, Cairo has undertaken a series of proactive measures… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 03:44 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 A Snapshot of Yemeni Public Sentiment on Red Sea Developments By Lara Uhlenhaut, Yazeed Al-Jeddawy, and Mona Ghaleb A rapid survey conducted by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies indicates that Yemeni support for Houthi operations in the Red Sea does not necessarily equate with a favorable view of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). Following the first US-UK retaliatory military strikes carried out in January this year, more than 400 Yemeni respondents across 11 governorates were asked their views on Houthi operations in the Red Sea, their perceived impact on the war in Gaza, and the effects of this escalation on peace prospects in the country. As the Houthis gain more regional and global clout, the survey provides an insightful glimpse into how their actions are perceived among Yemenis and the impact of these on their hopes for… Continue reading Yemen Review section October 16, 2024 10:35 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Military and Security — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: July-September 2024 By William Clough Israel struck Yemen directly for the first time during the ongoing conflict in response to a Houthi drone that crept by Israeli defense systems and detonated in Tel Aviv. The July 19 Houthi attack was the first to reach central Israel, and killed one person and wounded 10 others. But it paled in comparison to the Israeli response the following day. Dubbed Operation Outstretched Arm, the retaliation involved five simultaneous airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas of Hudaydah, using missiles launched from F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets. Strikes targeted the port of Hudaydah, and the Ras al-Kathib electricity station, located north of Hudaydah city along the coast. Six people, all Yemen Petroleum Company (YPC) port employees, were killed by the strikes,… Continue reading Yemen Review section October 16, 2024 14:25 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Politics and Diplomacy — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: July-September 2024 By Casey Coombs The Houthi Security and Intelligence Service has continued airing forced confessions by former employees of the US embassy in Sana’a, making increasingly outlandish claims of decades-long US spy operations in the country. The latest episodes, aired June 29, July 14, August 17, and September 1-2, focused on purported efforts to influence Yemeni culture, society, politics, and the education sector. Previous segments detailed alleged efforts to influence Yemen’s economy and agricultural sector. Regarding allegations of cultural interference, the Yemeni detainees (referred to as spies in the videos) discussed how the embassy’s cultural and media attachés worked in coordination with the CIA. English language courses offered by institutes such as the Yemen American Language Institute (YALI) and America-Mideast Educational and Training Services… Continue reading Yemen Review section October 16, 2024 27:46 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 The Economy — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: July-September 2024 By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi The ongoing economic conflict in Yemen escalated to include a fierce struggle between its bifurcated central bank for control over the nation's fractured monetary system and financial institutions. On June 26, the Central Bank of Yemen in Aden (CBY-Aden) issued a new directive, effectively banning banks and exchange outlets from working with unlicensed electronic payment companies. This move specifically targeted 12 e-wallet companies, which were deemed to be facilitating electronic payments and transfers without the necessary authorization. This appeared to be a part of a strategy to increase pressure on the Houthis by limiting alternatives to the deteriorating banknotes in use in areas under the group’s control and to prevent inflating the cash base in Yemen’s currently fragmented regulatory environment.… Continue reading Main Publications September 23, 2024 25:35 MIN Enhancing the Role of Microfinance Banks for Sustainable Impact in Yemen By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi Yemen's microfinance sector is undergoing a radical transformation. Despite initial success in empowering small businesses, the ongoing conflict has exposed deep vulnerabilities. Competition between the fractured central banks has driven a surge in microfinance bank (MFB) licenses. While this promises to expand financial inclusion, it raises serious concerns about long-term sustainability and financial stability. Several other factors are driving the transformation of existing money exchange companies into MFBs. These include the erosion of trust in the traditional banking system, the growth of the informal financial sector, and maneuvering by the exchange companies themselves. Additionally, lower entry requirements compared to conventional banks make becoming an MFB an attractive option. However, the surge in MFBs presents its own challenges. The divide in… Continue reading Main Publications September 16, 2024 37:17 MIN Child Soldiers in Marib and Shabwa By Ali Al-Sakani, Majd Ibrahim, and Casey Coombs The prevalence of child soldiers fighting in Yemen’s war has become common knowledge as Houthi (Ansar Allah) forces continue to publicly recruit and deploy children in military operations. Other armed groups in Yemen also recruit minors, although on a smaller scale and in a less public manner. In order to understand what accounts for that disparity and other aspects of child recruitment in Yemen, this policy brief seeks to explore the reasons why children have joined armed groups in Marib and Shabwa, two frontline governorates in which Houthi forces, Saudi-backed pro-government forces, and UAE-backed forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) are present. The warring parties have battled fiercely over control of Marib and Shabwa – two of only… Continue reading Main Publications July 31, 2024 04:01 MIN Every Day Brings a New Livelihood: Women’s Economic Empowerment in Yemen By Multiple authors This report examines the implementation challenges facing organizations supporting women’s economic participation in Yemen. It explores how interventions can be strengthened to foster change in social norms and household dynamics, rather than simply provide short-term income for women. It argues that the short-term nature of international assistance is severely hindering Yemeni women’s economic empowerment and that a strategic shift in engagement is crucial at this critical juncture. This is particularly important given that Yemeni women are increasingly engaging in the labor market, and some donors are focusing more on long-term development strategies. Rising female illiteracy, limited skills, lack of confidence, low self-esteem, and mental health issues were some of the barriers cited as limiting women’s income-earning pursuits and potential. Working… Continue reading Analysis July 23, 2024 10:10 MIN Saudis Give In to Houthi Pressure, Force CBY-Aden to Back Down By Ned Whalley, and Wadhah Al-Awlaqi Threatened with new attacks, Saudi Arabia has forced the Yemeni government to abandon efforts to cut off the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) from the international banking system. Financial sanctions enacted by the government-aligned Central Bank of Yemen in Aden (CBY-Aden) were perhaps the government’s last card in its efforts to negotiate economic relief or affect the power imbalance ahead of presumptive peace talks. Under enormous Saudi pressure, Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) canceled measures to consolidate control of the banking sector and financially isolate the Houthi-held north. The CBY-Aden’s position quickly became untenable without political support, and it has been forced to reverse course. The UN Special Envoy’s Office (OSESGY) has now announced that the government and the Houthis have… Continue reading Yemen Review section July 15, 2024 04:12 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 What Britain’s New Government Can Do For Yemen By Helen Lackner The widely expected victory of the Labour Party in Britain’s July 4 parliamentary elections came with a few surprises. As widely described, it was more a collapse of the Conservative Party than a Labour success, with the Labour Party gaining almost half a million fewer votes than it did in its equally historic defeat in 2019. Despite this, Labour will have an absolute majority in parliament of 172 seats, and the leadership will be able to ignore divergent views even among its own MPs. However, the party lost thousands of Muslim votes over leader Keir Starmer’s position on the Gaza war, at the cost of at least four seats, creating some pressure for course correction. While there are signs that… Continue reading Yemen Review section July 15, 2024 05:05 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 Turkey and the Red Sea Crisis By Maher Abu al-Majd Turkey’s meaningful engagement with Africa began during the rule of the Justice and Development Party in 2008. That year, Turkey hosted the first Turkey-Africa Cooperation Summit. Ankara’s quest for new horizons in its political and economic relations came during a period of notable economic growth, and over the past 15 years, it has successfully carved out a substantial presence in Africa, a continent ripe with economic prospects. Turkey’s particular focus has been on the Horn of Africa countries, where economic initiatives have an added geostrategic dimension. A key element here is Turkey’s military presence in Somalia, where it established its first military base, Turksom, in 2017. The same year, the ambassador to Turkey from Djibouti signaled a willingness to host… Continue reading