STC

Analysis February 21, 2023 06:00 MIN A Looming Battle over Wadi Hadramawt By Maged Al-Madhaji As the fragile undeclared truce continues between the internationally recognized government and the Houthi movement in Yemen, another cycle of political and military tension is escalating in southern Yemen. In Wadi Hadramawt, polarization over the future of the Seyoun-based 1st Military Region threatens a new round of fighting between groups within Yemen’s anti-Houthi camp. Tensions over Wadi Hadramawt stem from bitter divisions that Yemeni parties have been unable to overcome over the course of the war; in fact, the conflict has served to deepen preexisting rifts. A North-South divide continues to exist in many minds, which has led to demands among some southern groups, most prominently the Southern Transitional Council (STC), to roll back unification and restore the state of… Continue reading The Yemen Review February 20, 2023 27:56 MIN Yemen Annual Review 2022 By Sana’a Center Staff The past year has been one of extreme consequence for Yemen. The war has entered a new phase of low-level violence and economic warfare. Casualties are down since a truce was signed in April, and have remained relatively low even after its acrimonious expiration in October. The internationally recognized government has sworn in a new executive body, but it has been unable to bridge internal rifts or reverse the territorial and economic decline of recent years. The United Arab Emirates has fully re-engaged in Yemen through a variety of proxy groups, most importantly the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which holds sway across much of southern Yemen. Saudi Arabia is pursuing talks of its own with the Houthis, though its… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 14, 2022 08:44 MIN October 2022 Houthis Attack Oil Ports Houthi drone and missile strikes on government-controlled oil ports in mid-October marked the first significant post-truce military escalation, although neither the government nor the Houthis immediately launched major ground offensives. Fighting along frontlines nationwide after the truce ended October 2 occurred in southwestern Yemen, in Taiz, Lahj and Hudaydah governorates. In their troop movements and fortification of positions, both sides appeared to be preparing for the ground war to intensify. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, meanwhile, sent more weapons to their respective clients. No casualties or damage were reported from the October 18-21 Houthi strikes on the Nushayma oil terminal and Al-Dabba port, but the prospect of further attacks in and outside Yemen paralyzed oil exports for more than three… Continue reading Yemen Review section October 13, 2022 18:29 MIN September 2022 Houthis Scuttle Truce Talks with Last-Minute Demands The truce between Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the armed Houthi movement, in place since April, was allowed to expire without renewal on October 2. The UN-facilitated agreement birthed the longest sustained period of relative peace since the conflict began, with a concomitant drop off in civilian casualties. September was dominated by fruitless negotiations to extend and expand the agreement. UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg shuttled across the region to build support for an extension, as government and Houthi negotiators sparred over the terms. Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) chairman Rashad al-Alimi, inNew York to attend the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, gave a speech accusing the Houthis of disregarding the provisions of the truce. In Yemen, Houthi… Continue reading Analysis October 13, 2022 04:07 MIN September 2022 STC Talks with Baoum Could Shift Alliances in Southern Yemen By Hussam Radman Hassan Baoum’s calls for independence, first for Yemen and later for southern Yemen, date to the early 1960s, at times landing him in jail or exile. His 2017 demand that Arab coalition countries fighting the armed Houthi movement end their “foreign occupation” of the south was perceived as so extreme by the coalition-backed Yemeni government that it prolonged his exile and ensured his southern separatist group remained frozen out of the country’s power structures. Despite this, Baoum’s political and popular presence has not faded, and the replacement of President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi with a presidential council in April hastened a thaw that is altering southern political dynamics. Baoum, who has lived in Muscat since 2015, is expected to return… Continue reading Yemen Review section September 8, 2022 09:08 MIN August 2022 UAE- and STC-Affiliated Forces Win the Second Battle for Shabwa The most prominent military developments in August concerned intra-PLC clashes in Shabwa governorate between Islah-aligned and UAE-backed forces. The roots of the Shabwa fighting extend back to late July, when clashes between Islah-aligned government security forces and the STC-aligned Shabwa Defense forces culminated in the July 19 assassination attempt of Islah-aligned commander Abdu Rabu Laakab, who the UAE viewed as the kingpin of opposition to their presence. As a result of the clashes,UAE-backed Governor Awadh Bin al-Wazir al-Awlaki suspended Laakab and commander of the Shabwa Defense forces Second Brigade, Wadji Baoum, with the PLC authorizing Bin al-Wazir to take action to stabilize the situation. On August 6, Awlaki officially replaced Laakab with Colonel Ahmed Nasser al-Ahwal, but the Special Security… Continue reading Analysis August 18, 2022 07:33 MIN Defeat in Shabwa Forces Islah to Reckon With New Political Reality By Maged Al-Madhaji Long-running tensions in Shabwa devolved into heavy fighting in the governorate capital Ataq on August 8, pitting Islah-affiliated security forces against UAE-backed units. Back-and-forth fighting over three days ended on August 10 with the Giants Brigades and Shabwa Defense forces, supported by UAE drone strikes, securing control of the city and Islah-affiliated commanders fleeing the governorate. The battle in Shabwa and its ramifications represent the most complex challenge the government’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) has faced since its establishment four months ago. This was not the first round of hostilities in the strategic governorate – a battle between Islah and Southern Transitional Council (STC)-affiliated forces in August 2019 was resolved in favor of the former. However, the fresh infighting was… Continue reading Analysis July 19, 2022 29:40 MIN Politics despite the war: Yemeni political elites in Cairo By Marine Poirier Seven years of war in Yemen have wrought widespread destruction and economic devastation and seen hundreds of thousands flee from their home country. Like many of their compatriots, a great number of Yemeni politicians now live abroad, where most struggle to maintain their power and relevance. While attention often centers on leaders of warring factions, this paper examines the situation of (once) influential Yemeni politicians as they try to preserve their positions and local connections in exile, eyeing the challenges and opportunities of a post-war environment. In order to do so, this paper focuses on Cairo, one of the regional hubs where Yemeni politics has reorganized since the conflict’s outbreak, and where many political elites have found refuge. It examines… Continue reading Publications April 7, 2022 07:51 MIN March 2022 Military and Security A March wave of Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabian energy installations and retaliatory coalition airstrikes stopped, at least temporarily, with the April 1 announcement of the first nationwide truce of the war. The cease-fire took effect April 2, the start of the holy month of Ramadan, and was agreed to last two months, during which time military operations, including cross-border attacks, would halt and blockades on Hudaydah port and Sana’a airport would ease. The truce followed a month of an intensified air war. Houthi authorities said their missile and drone strikes were aimed at ending the Saudi-led coalition blockade on Houthi-controlled northern Yemen – a set of trade and travel restrictions that prevent the Houthis from controlling access to northern… Continue reading The Yemen Review March 3, 2022 279:55 MIN The Graveyard of Hubris – Yemen Annual Review 2021 Through most of 2021, the armed Houthi movement appeared unstoppable. As their forces pushed relentlessly toward Marib city, the fall of the last government stronghold in the north began to seem inevitable. Rich in oil and gas, its loss would be a mortal blow to the spiraling economy and political legitimacy of the internationally recognized government. Along frontlines across the country, Houthi forces either held their ground or advanced, showing a cohesiveness, discipline and effectiveness unmatched by the motley array of armed groups opposing them. Houthi drones and ballistic missiles flew across the border into Saudi Arabia, and continued even in the face of retaliatory airstrikes, heightening the cost of conflict for the coalition. Houthi military efforts were buttressed by… Continue reading The Yemen Review July 14, 2021 94:51 MIN Eye on the East – The Yemen Review, June 2021 Through periods of tolerance and persecution, marginalization has remained a constant in the treatment of racial and religious minorities in Yemeni society. During the ongoing conflict, however, violence and subjugation against these marginalized groups has increased dramatically, to the point that it is fundamentally reshaping Yemeni society. For Yemen as we know it to continue to exist it needs to assure the existence of its minorities, as something fundamental to the makeup of a nation dies when its minorities perish. Yemen’s Jewish community, with a history tracing back millennia, played a foundational role in developing Yemeni culture and commerce, and creating much of the artisanal industries for which the country is known. While the community had already been dwindling in… Continue reading Analysis October 22, 2020 56:41 MIN Marib: A Yemeni Government Stronghold Increasingly Vulnerable to Houthi Advances By Casey Coombs, and Ali Al-Sakani Marib, a centrally-located governorate connecting Al-Bayda, Shabwa, Hadramawt, Al-Jawf and Sana’a, has undergone a drastic transformation since the war started in 2015, emerging as a booming economic, social, political and military center. Natural resources including irrigation from the Marib dam and oil and gas reserves were instrumental in building a bustling metropolis in Marib city over a short period. But it was the autonomy afforded by decentralization under Governor Sultan al-Aradah that harnessed those resources for local development. Obtaining its share of the national gas and oil revenues, for example, has helped fund the improvement of infrastructure, pay civil servants' salaries and build government institutions. Though hardly insulated from the war, Marib has become a haven for displaced people and… Continue reading