Economic

Editorial December 27, 2023 03:45 MIN November and December 2023 Red Sea Conflict Gambles with Yemen’s Future With a series of drone and missile attacks targeting Israel and international shipping in the Red Sea, the Houthis seem to have succeeded in their long-held ambition to exercise regional power. The scale and impact of Houthi operations seems to have surprised some observers, who still tend to dismiss the group despite its survival through almost a decade of war against a US-backed Saudi and UAE military campaign. It’s hard to deny that Houthi operations are gaining them plaudits across the Arab and Muslim world. While it’s not surprising that the authorities in Sana’a can mobilize thousands of people for weekly demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza, even domestic adversaries are praising the group. As one senior pro-government military commander recently… Continue reading Yemen Review section December 27, 2023 13:34 MIN November and December 2023 Red Sea Attacks Provoke International Response The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) has thrust Yemen into the international limelight and put regional politics in turmoil with an escalating series of high-profile attacks on Red Sea shipping. The Houthis have launched dozens of drones and missiles at ships since October and captured the commercial ship Galaxy Leader in a striking airborne commando raid (see Military section). Declaring solidarity with the besieged Palestinian inhabitants of Gaza, the Houthi leadership has now threatened to attack any ships heading to Israel until the Israeli military offensive ceases. Major shipping lines and oil companies are now diverting their vessels round the Cape of Good Hope, as the West and regional powers consider their response. The Houthis first fired on ships soon after… Continue reading Yemen Review section December 27, 2023 11:23 MIN November and December 2023 Houthi Red Sea Attacks Increase Shipping Costs By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi The seizure of an Israeli-linked ship by Houthi forces in the Red Sea and repeated attacks on commercial shipping threaten to pile additional pressure on Yemen’s economy by raising the costs of imports. Shipping to Yemen already incurs increased transport and logistics costs due to its designation as a “high risk” area. According to a 2021 UNDP assessment, war premiums, covering the potential loss or damage to vessels, resulted in insurance costs for shipping to the port of Aden port to be 15 times the regular rate. These additional insurance costs, totaling more than US$20 million per year, are ultimately borne by Yemeni consumers. While the full economic ramifications on shipping to Yemen following the Houthi seizure of the Galaxy… Continue reading Main Publications December 19, 2023 32:42 MIN Challenges to Yemen’s Public Revenues By Ned Whalley, and Wadhah Al-Awlaqi Since April 2022, the war in Yemen has mutated from a high-casualty conflict to a protracted stalemate with relatively stable frontlines. The contest is now over the economy, as the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) leverages negotiations and its military power to put fiscal pressure on the internationally recognized government. The current phase has been marked by the expansion of economic warfare, with the Houthi authorities shutting down trade from government-controlled areas, stoking discontent as public utilities break down and the currency tumbles. The Houthi attack on government revenue streams began last fall with a blockade of oil exports and has expanded into competition for customs revenues and a ban on cooking gas produced in government-held areas. The precipitous decline in… Continue reading Editorial November 20, 2023 03:36 MIN September and October 2023 Blackouts and Blackholes: Yemen’s Vanishing Electricity Supply One of the most visceral signs of state collapse in Yemen isn’t frontline fighting or food insecurity – it’s the inability of the internationally recognized government to provide electricity. For several years now, the approach of summer has meant bracing for extended blackouts in many parts of the country. With the intense heat and humidity, life becomes almost unbearable for millions of people, and puts the sick and elderly at risk of death. Even as of late October, residents of Aden were getting only two hours of electricity a day due to a shortage of fuel for power plants. By contrast, although Yemenis living in Houthi-run territories are subject to many deprivations, a lack of electricity is not one of… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 20, 2023 16:47 MIN September and October 2023 Houthis Visit Riyadh as Bilateral Talks Move Forward A Houthi delegation arrived in Riyadh for discussions with Omani and Saudi officials on September 14, the first time Houthi representatives have publicly visited the Saudi capital since the war in Yemen began. The bilateral talks now appear to be moving rapidly toward the announcement of an agreement. The Houthi delegation met with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, and talks took place over five days before Houthi officials announced their conclusion and returned to Sana’a. The Saudi government said it is preparing a roadmap to securing peace in Yemen, and head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council Mahdi al-Mashat indicated the group was “pleased” with the discussions. On September 20, officials in Riyadh praised the “positive results” of the… Continue reading Yemen Review section November 20, 2023 19:29 MIN September and October 2023 Prime Minister Denies Allegations of Government Corruption By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi Prime Minister Maeen Abdelmalek Saaed denied allegations of corruption against his government made in a parliamentary report during a press conference on September 4. The alleged violations include mismanagement and corruption amounting to YR2.8 trillion (approximately US$1.9 billion) across the electricity, energy, telecommunications, and financial sectors. Saaed attacked the report of a parliament fact-finding committee, calling the accusations malicious and backed by influential individuals whose personal interests have suffered. He alleged that certain partisan individuals have attempted to obstruct the work of the government, and said that it has formed a committee headed by the minister of justice to respond to allegations outlined in the report. The prime minister defended his government’s performance, noting that it has continued to pay… Continue reading News October 5, 2023 01:32 MIN STC’s Al-Khobaji Calls for United Government Response to Saudi-Houthi Peace Negotiations Dr. Nasser al-Khobaji, a senior official with the Southern Transitional Council (STC), expressed support for the talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah), and stressed the importance of including other Yemeni parties in order to advance the peace process in Yemen, during the Yemen Media Call – a briefing with international and local journalists organized by the Sana’a Center on October 2. “Any potential agreement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is a positive development and a step in the right direction,” said Al-Khobaji, Chairperson of the STC’s Political Commission and Head of the Negotiations Affairs Unit. “We recognize that such talks will help lay the groundwork for a future political settlement that all… Continue reading Analysis September 18, 2023 14:38 MIN Houthis Make Official Visit to Riyadh for Talks with Saudi Arabia By Maged Al-Madhaji, Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, Hussam Radman, Abdulghani Al-Iryani, and Thomas Juneau A senior Houthi delegation arrived in Riyadh on September 14, the first such trip since the outset of the conflict. Bilateral Saudi-Houthi talks began in earnest after a failure to extend a UN-backed truce last year and accelerated after a Beijing-brokered détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the spring. Talks appeared to stall over the summer, but the visit suggests progress on a deal could be shortly forthcoming. The precise details of the negotiations have not been made public. The Saudis are looking to wind down their involvement in the war, fueling concerns that they will abandon the internationally recognized government and ignore the concerns and priorities of other Yemeni parties in their haste to leave, leading to further… Continue reading Yemen Review section September 14, 2023 22:18 MIN August 2023 UN, US Continue Shuttle Diplomacy The UN-led peace process has remained stalled since a formal truce expired without extension last October, and has since been superseded by direct bilateral talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). Nevertheless, the UN and US special envoys have continued to actively consult with the respective belligerents. On August 9, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg met with PLC chief Rashad al-Alimi in Riyadh along with other members of the PLC. In separate meetings, Grundberg spoke with Prime Minister Maeen Abdelmalek Saeed, Foreign Minister Ahmed bin Mubarak, and Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed al-Jaber. Discussions revolved around improving living conditions in Yemen, the political peace process, and increasing regional support. On August 15, Grundberg traveled to… Continue reading Main Publications September 4, 2023 20:50 MIN Absent from the Negotiation Table and Shunned from Public Life: Yemeni Women at a Crossroads By Rim Mugahed Across the globe, women share the burden of being largely excluded from decision-making bodies, but few are feeling it as acutely as Yemeni women. An almost decade-long war, coupled with a feminist, civil, and democratic experience that is yet unripe, and a strong patriarchal social system, have made it exceptionally hard for women to engage in public life. These factors, among others, have led Yemen to fall at the bottom of the list of countries with the worst gender gap indexes in the world, as reflected in the complete absence of women from parliament, government, and the ongoing peace negotiations. Nationwide, women are being denied the right to determine their own destiny, while their perspectives and priorities for peace remain… Continue reading Main Publications August 24, 2023 36:53 MIN Recovering Lost Ground in Shabwa’s Oil Sector By Majd Ibrahim, and Casey Coombs Shabwa’s oil sector has developed in fits and starts. Its first commercially viable oil reserves were discovered in 1987 when the governorate was still part of South Yemen. In 1990, South Yemen united with North Yemen to form the Republic of Yemen, which enlisted foreign energy companies to help develop the nascent oil industry. This included the construction of a pipeline running from northern Shabwa to the governorate’s Arabian Sea coast, and over the next 15 years a growing number of foreign energy firms and state-owned companies tapped new oil fields and further expanded production. Shabwa’s annual oil output peaked in 2010 at more than 25 million barrels (about 70,000 barrels per day), before plummeting to about 8 million barrels… Continue reading