Economic

Analysis July 15, 2024 06:23 MIN Quarterly: April-June 2024 What a New President and a Looming Succession Means for Iran’s Yemen Policy By Thomas Juneau The death of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, as well as the foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in a helicopter accident on May 19 raises the question of the impact of their disappearance from the scene on the country’s foreign policy regarding Yemen. The answer for the short term is straightforward: Raisi’s death will have a marginal impact on the country’s foreign policy, in general and specifically in Yemen. In the mid to longer term, however, the situation becomes less clear because of the eventual succession to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old and has had cancer. Because Raisi was a potential candidate to succeed him, his death changed the dynamics… Continue reading Main Publications July 9, 2024 24:22 MIN From Vulnerability to Empowerment: The Future of Social Protection in Yemen By Ziad Saad, and Ziad al-Hassan Yemen's social protection system is failing to support its population adequately. Years of conflict have left millions vulnerable, struggling with poverty, hunger, and displacement. This is due to two main issues: a fragmented structure lacking a central governing body and chronic funding instability. These problems lead to a cascade of negative consequences. Firstly, the fragmented system creates inefficiencies, unequal resource distribution, and unclear accountability. Decades of conflict and economic hardship have created a complex web of vulnerabilities among the population, yet the current social safety net is inadequate. Outdated targeting mechanisms and insufficient needs assessments exclude deserving beneficiaries, while weak monitoring and evaluation methods fail to capture program impact and hinder improvement efforts. Existing programs primarily address immediate needs, neglecting… Continue reading Analysis June 5, 2024 34:33 MIN Houthi Media: A Study in Ideological Warfare By Burhan Ahmed In April 2023, a Saudi delegation was invited to visit the Houthi-held capital of Sana’a. Over the next couple of days, the media arm of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) distributed a series of photographs to international and local media outlets featuring Mahdi al-Mashat, head of the Houthi Supreme Political Council, smiling warmly in a stately reception hall and shaking the hand of Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed bin Saeed al-Jaber. These photos were extensively reprinted, appearing on NBC, Reuters, BBC, and Al-Arabiya, as well as in local outlets from the Baltics to Beijing. This sleek image of Houthi diplomacy is far from the militant and adversarial rhetoric circulated by founder Hussein al-Houthi and the outrage voiced by insurgent… Continue reading Analysis May 31, 2024 19:13 MIN Batarfi’s Death and Al-Qaeda in Yemen’s New Emir: What Comes Next? By Assim al-Sabri Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) made a surprise announcement on March 10, 2024, publicizing the death of its leader, Khaled Batarfi, and the appointment of Saad al-Awlaqi as his successor. Al-Qaeda’s official statement, delivered by jihadist leader Khabib al-Sudani, did not disclose any details about the manner of Batarfi’s death. This might be the first time that news of the death of a senior Al-Qaeda leader was shrouded in such mystery. In the past, the United States was the first to announce the assassination of jihadist leaders – as happened with former AQAP leaders Nasser al-Wuhayshi and Qassim al-Raymi, as well as with global Al-Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. Al-Qaeda would then deny the news, or… Continue reading Publications May 15, 2024 41:12 MIN The Role of the Judiciary in Achieving Transitional Justice and Reconciliation in Yemen By Mohammed Al-Shuwaiter An almost decade-long conflict has severely impacted Yemen's judiciary, weakening its already fragile infrastructure and further undermining its competence and credibility. Additionally, the judiciary has faced political polarization, diminishing trust in its neutrality and casting doubt on its ability to handle politically sensitive cases associated with transitional justice post-conflict. Notwithstanding the challenges, efforts must be exerted for the judiciary to assume a foundational role in post-conflict Yemen and serve as a channel for restoring the rule of law and reinstating public trust in state institutions. Following a comprehensive review of the transitional justice landscape in Yemen, including an examination of the outcomes of the National Dialogue Conference, Yemen’s 2015 draft constitution, the draft transitional justice laws from 2012 and 2014,… Continue reading Publications May 7, 2024 30:23 MIN Land for the Powerful: Property Violations in Aden By Ghaidaa Alrashidy Disputes over land and property can represent a serious obstacle to peace. Years of armed conflict break down legal protections and lead to extralegal actions like seizures, evictions, and land redistribution. Lack of protections can lead people to not feel secure in their homes or neighborhoods – and others feel empowered by absent oversight. As order leaves cities in Yemen, Housing, Land, and Property (HLP) violations have inevitably multiplied. The city of Aden has a thorny history of political transformations that have directly affected private and public property rights. The city’s strategic location between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden – named after it – and urban infrastructure has once contributed to heightening property values. Throughout contemporary history,… Continue reading Editorial April 9, 2024 03:58 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Protect Yemen’s Path to Peace Just six months ago, backchannel Saudi-Houthi peace talks were nearing their conclusion. The basic outlines of a deal were known to government parties and the external players involved in the Yemeni crisis. Many objected to its terms, but Saudi Arabia’s stranglehold over the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) made it feel like a fait accompli. Members of the PLC doubted that the Houthis would ever invite them back into a unified government, except in the most superficial manner. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) feared that the right to self-determination in areas of the former southern state would slip down the agenda. The US, which had been pushing for Saudi Arabia to end the war since 2021, became nervous that Riyadh was… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 9, 2024 05:29 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Childhood Lost: No Respite in the Recruitment of Yemen’s Child Soldiers By Saqr Al-Sunaidi Although short-lived, Yemen’s truce, brokered in April 2022, led to a period of relative calm. Many hoped that the thousands of child soldiers recruited by the different warring parties — reportedly 2,233 in the period from July 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022, alone would leave combat and return to finish their education. Sadly, this has not been the case. A 2021 UN report, Education Disrupted, noted that former child soldiers were not returning to schools, partly because they lacked the support to do so. It noted “growing concern that if out-of-school children or those who have dropped out recently are not properly supported, they may never return to school.” This underlies the alarming, long-term effect of the recruitment of… Continue reading Analysis April 9, 2024 05:05 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Iran’s View of Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Protecting Gains and Limiting Costs By Thomas Juneau The war in Gaza has presented the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) with an opportunity to consolidate power inside Yemen and expand its regional influence. To achieve these aims, the Houthis have launched dozens of attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. Domestically, this has allowed them to mobilize strong pro-Palestinian feeling among the Yemeni population. Regionally, it has helped the Houthis further establish themselves as an emerging power, as they have demonstrated that they have both the capability and the intent to obstruct shipping in one of the global economy’s crucial maritime chokepoints. To understand Iran’s interests and perceptions regarding the crisis in the Red Sea, it is useful to examine its approach to Yemen prior to Hamas’s attack on… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 9, 2024 26:36 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 The Economy — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: January-March 2024 By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi The re-designation of the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group (SDGT) by the Biden administration, which took effect on February 16, has sparked a complex debate. The move follows a series of Houthi missile attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. The designation allows the US Treasury to impose sanctions on individuals and entities affiliated with the Houthis, potentially hindering their ability to fund activities deemed “terrorism” by the US. American citizens and companies are now prohibited from doing business with the Houthis unless they receive special permission. Even companies partially owned by the Houthis or related blacklisted groups are off-limits. Outside the US, the designation sends a strong message to other countries… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 9, 2024 19:34 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 Politics and Diplomacy — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: January-March 2024 By Ned Whalley The political situation in Yemen has been completely upended by the regional and domestic fallout wrought by Houthi attacks on maritime shipping and the conflict in Gaza. Peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) are now on hold indefinitely, and the future of a seemingly imminent deal is now unclear. Attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea have continued despite more than two months of American and British airstrikes, which inject further uncertainty into the conflict. The Houthis have built a propaganda campaign around their operations to build support and consolidate control. The divided internationally recognized government lacks the capacity to respond, and with few good options, the West’s strategy remains unclear. With negotiations stalled, Yemen… Continue reading Yemen Review section April 9, 2024 02:31 MIN Quarterly: January-March 2024 The Environment — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: January-March 2024 The fallout from the conflict in the Red Sea extends to its vibrant ecosystem and the communities it supports. On March 2, The Rubymar, a British-owned commercial vessel, sank after being struck by a Houthi missile in a February 18 attack. The Rubymar is the first ship to be sunk since the Houthis began targeting Red Sea trade last fall. The ship was adrift for 12 days, leaving an oil slick some 18 miles long, and it has been posited that its dragging anchor was the source of reported damage to undersea telecommunications cables. The wreck now lies 16 nautical miles off the Yemeni coast at a depth of around 330 feet, and could pose a threat to other ships… Continue reading