Publications

News October 25, 2024 02:15 MIN Lebanon war could draw Yemen further into regional conflict, panel says The Houthis are prepared to expand their role against Israeli interests in the ongoing Middle East conflict but are learning lessons from mistakes made by Hezbollah, an expert panel said in a special webinar hosted by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies to discuss the conflict in Lebanon this week. The Gaza war took a dramatic turn following Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and other senior Hezbollah leaders in September. Israel then launched an expanded campaign of airstrikes against Lebanon and invaded the south in a bid to end rocket fire on Israel and dismantle Hezbollah’s military and political power. “Hezbollah is now teaching the Houthis how to avoid a structural collapse,” said Adnan al-Jabarni, a journalist based in Marib,… Continue reading Main Publications October 25, 2024 01:50 MIN Localizing Aid and Development in Yemen By Dr. Nadia Al-Sakkaf This study examines the key barriers and opportunities regarding localizing humanitarian aid in Yemen. The findings reveal a significant gap between the international community’s intent to localize aid and the reality on the ground. Challenges include Yemen’s fragmented political landscape, weak governance, and a limited understanding of what localization entails. Further, the lack of sustained investment in local organizations, especially those in rural areas or led by women, has hampered efforts to empower Yemeni actors. Internal issues within Yemeni civil society, such as monopolies over donor partnerships, also exacerbate the problem. These issues leave international entities struggling to find effective Yemeni partners. At the same time, Yemeni local communities, civil society, and the private sector are desperate for genuine leadership.… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 07:07 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 The Houthis’ Rise Amid the Gaza War and Red Sea Crisis: From Local Actor to Regional Force By Alexandra Nikopoulou Following the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) rapidly extended their support to the Palestinians, directly targeting Israel, along with Israeli and Western vessels in the Red Sea. This unprecedented crisis has bolstered the group’s regional status and resulted in the escalation of regional tensions and the emergence of a novel threat to global maritime security. Concurrently, it has provided the Houthis with added leverage at the negotiation table. The Houthis have essentially transitioned from being recognized solely as a local Yemeni actor to becoming a powerful regional player within the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Drawing on key insights from Sana’a Center experts, this analysis follows a three-level approach to examine the impact of the Houthis’ attacks… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 05:46 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 UAE-Backed Forces Regroup in Yemen By Eleonora Ardemagni Since 2022, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has been at the forefront of efforts to regroup UAE-backed forces in Yemen, including those that operate under its own banner. These efforts have accelerated in recent months, involving the appointment of new officials and increased cooperation with other UAE-backed actors in Yemen. There are three reasons for this campaign: to build a larger and more cohesive front to cope with possible future scenarios, from the resumption of large-scale fighting to a diplomatic breakthrough in the moribund peace process; to counterbalance the influence of the Saudi-backed Nation’s Shield forces; and to deal with persistent political-military tensions in Hadramawt, where the STC is attempting to increase its influence. Overall, the reorganization of these armed… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 07:23 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Egypt Maneuvers in the Horn of Africa By Maher Abu al-Majd Since October 2023, the Middle East has witnessed a series of geopolitical developments, which Cairo has perceived as a direct threat to its national security. These include: 1) the Israeli war on Gaza; 2) Houthi escalation in the Red Sea and a subsequent decline in Suez Canal revenue; 3) Ethiopia's quest for a seaport and plans to establish a naval base on the coast of Somaliland; and 4) the crisis in Libya and the potential for renewed conflict. This rapid succession of events has shattered Egypt's longstanding pillars of foreign policy, which for four decades were built on the principles of good neighborliness, non-intervention, and investing in mediation and diplomacy. In response, Cairo has undertaken a series of proactive measures… Continue reading Yemen Review section October 16, 2024 03:08 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Reforming the Presidential Council By Abdulghani Al-Iryani The three most salient reasons for the collapse of the regime of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and the inevitable slide into civil war were, firstly, the lack of proper representation of key political forces and social components in Yemen. After Saleh’s victory over the Socialist Party in the civil war in 1994, power was concentrated within his immediate circle, alienating other forces in the country. By the mid-2000s, even his closest ally, Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, was alienated. This lack of representation was what led to protests in the south and a series of wars in Sa’ada against the Houthi movement. The second factor was a lack of government effectiveness and responsiveness. The process of state-building was stifled by corrupt… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 03:44 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 A Snapshot of Yemeni Public Sentiment on Red Sea Developments By Lara Uhlenhaut, Yazeed Al-Jeddawy, and Mona Ghaleb A rapid survey conducted by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies indicates that Yemeni support for Houthi operations in the Red Sea does not necessarily equate with a favorable view of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). Following the first US-UK retaliatory military strikes carried out in January this year, more than 400 Yemeni respondents across 11 governorates were asked their views on Houthi operations in the Red Sea, their perceived impact on the war in Gaza, and the effects of this escalation on peace prospects in the country. As the Houthis gain more regional and global clout, the survey provides an insightful glimpse into how their actions are perceived among Yemenis and the impact of these on their hopes for… Continue reading Yemen Review section October 16, 2024 10:35 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Military and Security — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: July-September 2024 By William Clough Israel struck Yemen directly for the first time during the ongoing conflict in response to a Houthi drone that crept by Israeli defense systems and detonated in Tel Aviv. The July 19 Houthi attack was the first to reach central Israel, and killed one person and wounded 10 others. But it paled in comparison to the Israeli response the following day. Dubbed Operation Outstretched Arm, the retaliation involved five simultaneous airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas of Hudaydah, using missiles launched from F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets. Strikes targeted the port of Hudaydah, and the Ras al-Kathib electricity station, located north of Hudaydah city along the coast. Six people, all Yemen Petroleum Company (YPC) port employees, were killed by the strikes,… Continue reading Yemen Review section October 16, 2024 14:25 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Politics and Diplomacy — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: July-September 2024 By Casey Coombs The Houthi Security and Intelligence Service has continued airing forced confessions by former employees of the US embassy in Sana’a, making increasingly outlandish claims of decades-long US spy operations in the country. The latest episodes, aired June 29, July 14, August 17, and September 1-2, focused on purported efforts to influence Yemeni culture, society, politics, and the education sector. Previous segments detailed alleged efforts to influence Yemen’s economy and agricultural sector. Regarding allegations of cultural interference, the Yemeni detainees (referred to as spies in the videos) discussed how the embassy’s cultural and media attachés worked in coordination with the CIA. English language courses offered by institutes such as the Yemen American Language Institute (YALI) and America-Mideast Educational and Training Services… Continue reading Editorial October 16, 2024 03:48 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Yemen’s Neglected Climate Crisis Severe storms and flooding have wreaked havoc in Yemen since July, affecting over 560,000 people across the country and causing extensive damage to agriculture and infrastructure. Tens of thousands – including displaced persons – have been left without shelter and clean water in Ibb, Sana’a, Marib, Hudaydah, Al-Mahwit, and Taiz. While there is no final tally as yet of the hundreds of lives lost, now there is concern over the spread of waterborne diseases like cholera. Dead bodies are being pulled out from rubble, under trees, or, in one case of a woman clutching her child in Melhan district in Al-Mahwit governorate, buried in mud – a haunting image that captures the weight of this tragedy. The extreme downpours have… Continue reading Yemen Review section October 16, 2024 27:46 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 The Economy — The Yemen Review, Quarterly: July-September 2024 By Wadhah Al-Awlaqi The ongoing economic conflict in Yemen escalated to include a fierce struggle between its bifurcated central bank for control over the nation's fractured monetary system and financial institutions. On June 26, the Central Bank of Yemen in Aden (CBY-Aden) issued a new directive, effectively banning banks and exchange outlets from working with unlicensed electronic payment companies. This move specifically targeted 12 e-wallet companies, which were deemed to be facilitating electronic payments and transfers without the necessary authorization. This appeared to be a part of a strategy to increase pressure on the Houthis by limiting alternatives to the deteriorating banknotes in use in areas under the group’s control and to prevent inflating the cash base in Yemen’s currently fragmented regulatory environment.… Continue reading Analysis October 16, 2024 07:06 MIN Quarterly: July-September 2024 Houthi Authorities Undermine Judicial Independence with Major Reforms By Mohammed Al-Shuwaiter In a new assault on the judiciary, the Houthi-controlled House of Representatives approved several amendments to the 1991 law on judicial power in mid-September 2024. This is not the first infringement on judicial independence since the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) staged a coup, taking control of Sana’a in 2014. They are systematically tightening their grip over the judiciary along racial and sectarian lines. The Houthis deliberately changed the legal structure of the judiciary and introduced what they called a “justice system” – a special committee tasked with overseeing the functions of the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC). The committee is headed by Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council. They also created unofficial posts of “supervisor” (mushrif)… Continue reading