Publications

Analysis July 21, 2025 04:04 MIN April-June 2025 What Does a Weakened Iran Mean for the Houthis? By Thomas Juneau The balance of power in the Middle East has been transformed in the past year and a half. For years, there was a widespread assumption that there existed a loose balance of terror between Israel and Iran. Analysts understood that Israel’s conventional military power, backed by the United States, was vastly superior to Iran’s depleted military. But the common view was that Iran’s unconventional assets – its missile and drone programs and its support for violent non-state armed groups – posed enough of a threat to deter Israel from attacking. This perception led to the gradual development of unofficial rules of the game between the two sides, whereby each repeatedly attacked the other, but indirectly, and with sufficient restraint to… Continue reading Analysis July 18, 2025 04:26 MIN Currency War Threatens to Deepen Yemen’s Monetary Rift By Sana’a Center Economic Unit Yemen's fractured monetary system is on the brink of further division. The Houthi group has introduced new unilateral monetary measures, issuing new coins and banknotes in an attempt to consolidate financial control, undermine their rivals, and sustain the war economy. On July 13, the Houthi-affiliated Central Bank of Yemen in Sana’a (CBY-Sana’a) issued a new 50-rial coin. Two days later, the central bank announced the introduction of a new 200-rial banknote. It claimed the new currency is intended to replace damaged and worn-out 50, 100, 200, and 250-rial banknotes and will not impact exchange rates or the national economy. The government-controlled Central Bank of Yemen in Aden (CBY-Aden) swiftly denounced the new coin as a “counterfeit, destructive, and a continuation… Continue reading News July 16, 2025 03:08 MIN Sana’a Center Visit to Colombia Focuses on Peacebuilding and Justice Bogotá, Colombia, July 6, 2025 — The Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies has concluded a week-long study tour to Colombia, exploring the country’s peace process, transitional justice system, and approaches to inclusive reconciliation. The trip gathered insights into the design of peace processes and transitional justice frameworks to help inform the Sana’a Center’s ongoing work on justice and reconciliation in Yemen. The visit, funded by the Kingdom of the Netherlands, was carried out in partnership with Yemen’s DeepRoot Consulting and involved participation from members of the Hikma Fellowship. The study tour in Colombia was organized by Fundación Acordemos, a Bogotá-based organization founded in 2023 by members of the team behind Colombia’s historic peace agreement with the FARC. The Sana’a Center… Continue reading Analysis June 20, 2025 09:39 MIN The Israel-Iran War – Reaction from Sana’a Center Experts By Maged Al-Madhaji, Abdulghani Al-Iryani, Tawfeek Al-Ganad, and Osamah Al Rawhani The Middle East is undergoing profound shifts following the Israeli strikes on Iran. These developments have far-reaching consequences that extend beyond the Islamic Republic, particularly influencing the situation in Yemen. The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) has emerged as the last effective stronghold of the so-called Axis of Resistance, especially after the weakening of its other pillars, most notably Hezbollah. Although the Houthis were quick to condemn Israel’s attack on Iran, the extent of their ability to support their allies beyond rhetoric remains uncertain. The Houthis announced the firing of ballistic missiles at Israel on June 15, with military spokesman Yahya Sarea stating that the group’s attacks were coordinated with Iran. However, a week into this escalation, Iran appears to be… Continue reading Publications June 17, 2025 03:59 MIN Beyond Rhetoric: Houthi Options in the Israel-Iran War By Yazeed Al-Jeddawy The rapid escalation between Israel and Iran in recent days threatens to reshape regional dynamics while exposing the limits of the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) as a reliable pressure tool for Tehran. Before Israel attacked Iran in the early hours of Friday morning, the Houthis had positioned themselves as Israel’s most active threat. In response to Israeli retaliatory strikes in Yemen, the Houthis warned that no site in Israel would be completely safe, announcing that they are testing new missiles capable of causing greater damage to Israel, and going as far as urging diplomatic missions in Israel to evacuate and communicate with the “Yemeni Armed Forces” to ensure their safety. Domestically, the Houthis continue to claim victory in the Red… Continue reading Analysis May 21, 2025 10:30 MIN Saudi Arabia’s New Approach Toward Yemen’s Northern Tribes By Adel Dashela Yemen has witnessed profound changes over the last decade as the country's political geography disintegrated and non-state actors rose to prominence. It is now a fragmented state, where “Yemeni tribes—especially in the northern provinces ... control large portions of the country’s territory and perform state-like functions.” With the collapse of state institutions, tribes have sought to become an alternative to state authorities in order to protect their members and material interests. In the words of political scientist Daniel Corstange, in some contexts, tribes have become the “second-best substitutes for an absent or weak state.” Historically, intertwined connections and unstable dynamics have characterized relationships between Saudi Arabia and these tribes. The relationship “has been subjected to significant shocks and external and… Continue reading Analysis May 16, 2025 06:10 MIN A New Prime Minister is Not the Answer By Abdulghani Al-Iryani, and Wadhah Al-Awlaqi Ever since the internationally recognized government fled from Sana’a after the Houthi takeover in 2014, it has failed to develop a strategy to adapt to its new environment and the challenges it poses. Instead, it has continued to act as if nothing has happened, and only a few tweaks are required to keep going. This can be seen clearly in the decision to maintain large cabinets, along with hundreds of deputy ministers added to accommodate the relatives of powerful government figures. Whenever conditions deteriorated, the miracle cure would be a cabinet reshuffle drawing from the same pool of corrupt officials. Each new prime minister presented a government program that they knew, and everyone else knew, could not be implemented. So… Continue reading Analysis May 9, 2025 07:27 MIN US Leaves Yemen Worse Than It Found It By Ned Whalley At a May 6 press conference with the Canadian prime minister, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with the Houthis (Ansar Allah). Trump said the group had agreed to end attacks on the US Navy and maritime shipping transiting the Red Sea in exchange for an immediate halt to US airstrikes in Yemen. Each side claimed the other had backed down. The Houthis quickly reserved the right to continue attacks on Israel, whose ongoing destruction of Gaza was the purported impetus for their attacks in the Red Sea. April was the deadliest month of airstrikes in Yemen since 2017 – the US has conducted over a thousand since mid-March - but Houthi power remains entrenched, its drone and missile… Continue reading Analysis May 9, 2025 08:58 MIN Why Did Trump Decide to Halt Operations in Yemen? By Hussam Radman Over the past few days, Yemen has witnessed a series of dramatic developments that could profoundly reshape the local and regional dynamics of the conflict. First, the Houthis succeeded in breaching Israeli air defenses with a ballistic missile attack targeting Ben Gurion Airport. Second, Israel launched a markedly more destructive response, striking economic infrastructure in Yemen and rendering both the port of Hudaydah and Sana’a Airport completely inoperable. Finally, US President Donald Trump announced a halt to US airstrikes in Yemen after the Houthis agreed to cease attacks against the US Navy and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. This rapid and stunning turn of events effectively signals that Washington has chosen to relinquish its role as a geopolitical stabilizer… Continue reading Analysis April 28, 2025 05:16 MIN Yemen’s Parliament: A Legislative Authority in a Retirement Home By Tawfeek Al-Ganad Yemen’s parliament has come to resemble a retirement home. Elections for the legislature were last held 22 years ago on April 27, 2003. Since then, 60 Members of Parliament (MPs), or 20 percent, have died in office. The youngest sitting MP is now 47 years old, while many others have either lost their vitality and public presence to the passage of time or have passed away. More importantly, the body itself is inactive and unable to perform its constitutional duties. The mandate of Yemen’s parliament should have officially expired in April 2009. Article 65 of the Yemeni Constitution stipulates that “the term of the House of Representatives is six solar years starting from its first session. The President shall call… Continue reading Analysis April 27, 2025 12:38 MIN The Lasting Legacy of Raufah Hassan (1958-2011) By Lara Uhlenhaut “It is my opinion that democracy cannot be invented by a country nor imposed by a government. However, it grows within a house. A man and a woman who do not practice democracy between themselves cannot form a democratic society.” —Raufah Hassan April 27 marks the anniversary of the death of Raufah Hassan, who passed away in Cairo in 2011 at the young age of 53. Deeply loved and revered by generations of Yemenis, Raufah Hassan was a pioneer in Yemeni women’s rights and a respected journalist, academic, writer, and intellectual. To countless admirers, however, she represented much more than these titles convey; she was seen as someone who “carried the cultural truth of Yemen” and who was, in essence,… Continue reading The Yemen Review April 21, 2025 14 Sections The Yemen Review Quarterly: January-March 2025 On March 15, the US launched Operation Rough Rider, a massive expansion of its aerial campaign against the Houthi group (Ansar Allah). The strikes followed a Houthi threat to resume targeting Israeli ships due to the blockade of aid into Gaza on March 2. Strikes have been taking place continuously as of the time of writing. The Houthi-affiliated Health Ministry has reported that as of April 14, at least 123 civilians have been killed and another 247 wounded, though the real numbers are probably higher. The airstrikes are fundamentally different than those undertaken during the Biden administration, both in intensity and scope, targeting not just missile installations and weapons depots, but also communications infrastructure and the group's leadership. International scrutiny… Continue reading